November 30, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Henni Penny | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Strike Magic | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Toastnjam | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fairy Diva (GB) | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Wicked Amber | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pink Peppermint | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Splasherstown | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Superbloodwolfmoon | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Honor Belle | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | The Sicarii | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Swiping Dan | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dark N Cloudy | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Deep Sea | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Full Salute | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Thousand Percent | 1.80 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Hardcore Folklore | 1.80 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Ava Malone | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Coilean Bawn | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | In Front | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ocean Fire | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Silver Kitten | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Take Ten | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kitana | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Begonia | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Touch Me Not | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | First in Command | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Call Me Harry | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mo Maverick | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fast Getaway | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Discretionary Marq | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Mission | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Shiraz | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mo Diddley | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Sudden Surprise | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Kosciuszko | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Le General | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | We Should Talk | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Honorable Hero | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Speightful Kitten | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Five Star Bunt | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Always Misbehaving | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Secret Rules | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Extreme Force | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flatter Me | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Menelik | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pine Knoll | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12A | 8 | Tangled Web | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Where’s Rudy | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon in May | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Starting Point | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Willing to Speed | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mohican | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Overbold | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Hizaam | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Hardest Part (GB) | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bray | 4.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fleet Admiral | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Bye Bye Man | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4A | 4 | Go Poke the Bear | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sneakiness | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Dubini | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fully Vested | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gidu (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vici | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lonhtwist | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jammer | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nice Tune | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Discovery S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Performer | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mubarmaj | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | En Wye Cee | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tax | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Grumps Little Tots | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Majid | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Air Attack | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Carlos L. | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Long Island S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Lift Up | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Si Que Es Buena (ARG) | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Romantic Pursuit | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Homeland Security | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Empressof the Nile | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mercilla | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | More Fun Again | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Pivotal Connection (GB) | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Wegetsdamunnys | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Another Broad | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Decorating | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Sister Nat (FR) | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Beau Belle | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Team Win | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Entropia (ARG) | 15.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Talent Scout | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Elios Milos | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Quest for Fire | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Tizanoxbow | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Johnny Wishbone | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Mac’s Revolution | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Wonder | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Bronxville | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Call the Cat | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Indian Ghost | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Our American Star | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.