November 29, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Hoboken | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cooke Brothers | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Go for Jim | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Battalstown | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gambit | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sevennotrump | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Opportunity | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Written Permission | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Superado | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Seek N Justice | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Pull Me Back | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Paigely | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Subiaco | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Whimsical Muse | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Classy Justice | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Singsong Bird | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Upgrade Me | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Flashy Biz | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Actress On Board | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Emma’s Song | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Between the Hedges | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sunflower Rose | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hong Kong Helen | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Big Boss Lady | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Green Monster | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Shackadelic | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Happy Peddler | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Panterita | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Super Cassidy | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Keep This Kitten | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Excelerita | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Birdie Blue | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mysterious Lew | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Erv’s Wench | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Go Stormin Girl | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mi Bella | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Razorback Honey | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | My Sixth Sense | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wicked Indeed | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Moment | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cairo Cat | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gigging | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Treasure Trove | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Claytnthelionheart | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Charlie’sarchangel | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Goose Drank Wine | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Malibu Wood | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Mark My Way | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blue Mesa | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Peekacho | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Risky Town | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Honor Mission | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | High Risk Strategy | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11A | 8 | Overzealous | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stuart Hall | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Red Again | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7A | 7 | Frost Or Frippery | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Blackjack Jedi | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Warrior’s Dream | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Horsefeathers | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Pull My Chain | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ice Sphere | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Royal Edition | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Anothrdayatthelake | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wings Up | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cj’s Billy’sempire | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Helluva Life | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Front Page | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | D Squared | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Griff | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Park Ridge Benny | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Fascilitator | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Giddymeister | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Tres Equis | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zaevion | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Forerun | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Pat Daddy | 3.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Run Trouble Run | 50.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Here’s Carlos | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rockshaw | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mo Wheels Up | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Harmony Victory | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flower House | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pink Scatillac | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fun Paddy | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Goodbye Earl | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Artistic | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Data Damsel | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Icy Calm | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Ellens Birthday | 50.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Mrs. Revere S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 12 | The Mackem Bullet (IRE) | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hard Legacy | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nay Lady Nay (IRE) | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | New and Improved | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | She’sonthewarpath | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dalika (GER) | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Amandrea | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Wildlife | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Winning Envelope | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Proud Emma | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Delta’s Kingdom | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Julia’s Ready | 50.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Winter Sunset | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Passionof the Nile | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Troubling Moon | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Solomini | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Own Agenda | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hawaakom | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Scars Are Cool | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | December Seven | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Royal Mesa | 10.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Roiland | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Storm Runner | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Celerity | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Lone Rock | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Clark S. Presented By Norton Healthcare
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tom’s d’Etat | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Owendale | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Buff | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Seeking the Soul | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mr Freeze | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mocito Rojo | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bravazo | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fact Finding | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Snapper Sinclair | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Major Cabbie | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Draft Pick | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Pioneer Spirit | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tipazar | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ilha Do Mel | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Talaalah | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hoppa | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Awesome One | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Georgia Clay | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hands Up | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Creative Contessa | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Quality too Spare | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Angel Number | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ruby Q | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Untapped Fire | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Stylish Ash | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.