November 27, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | All Around | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | He’s No Bull | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Jimmy Joe | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Call West | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mason A. P. | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Baritone | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rock Me | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Court Sky | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Instigated | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Warrant Officer | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Revved | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Drew | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Farm Strong | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Alaskan Flyer | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wise Soldier | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Magic Michael | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Cane Break | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | St. Paddy’s Daddy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lady Cleopatra | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sun Dress | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Urban Kat | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sunset Paula Jo | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She Might Tell | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bold Rey | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mo’s M V P | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Grams Future | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Frozen Hannah | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Savour the Moment | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mucha Mezquina | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tryon Summer | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Savvy Shipman | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Romani | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mo Gayle | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Folly | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Royal Gem | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Keeper Real | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Luna Fortis | 5.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Queen Maxine | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hat Tip | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Rogue Too | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Sheesa Pontiac | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lewys Vaporizer | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Turner Time | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Zombie | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hickory Hill | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Niigon’s Glory | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stay Home | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Im the Best I Know | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sidney’s Ransom | 50.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | All Hansens Ondeck | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Mark of the Z | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Deano | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Strong Side | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sacred Kiki Bird | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Cadron Flats | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Menace the Dennis | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Bear Trappe | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Colombiano | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pleasant Sunrise | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Time On Target | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Honduras | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Rocky Roma | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Electric Avenue | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mr. Four Sevens | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Proudly Pacific | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Every Single Day | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Girlfriend Rocket | 2.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sara Sea | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Time Delivery | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Twelve Monarchs | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Le Moine | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Excuses Begone | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 5 | True Dream | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Frond | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Latest Version | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 6 | So Honest | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 1 | Lessons From Avery | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | Call Me Kayla | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 16 | 7 | Dancensing | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | La Signare (FR) | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Solar Kitten | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Sea Dream (BRZ) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 13 | Cash Out | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Delta’s Kingdom | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Pretty At War | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Makealitlemischief | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Curluck | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Joy of Treasure | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 15 | Rahway | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shilah Baby | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Club Car | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Lady Kate | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Diamond Crazy | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Its Cold in Dehere | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Urban Insight | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Talbeya | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Breakfast Pond | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | On Deck | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Runway Starlet | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Flatoutandfoxy | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blinkers | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Super Wonder Girl | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Long Gray Line | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Firehorn | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | King Ford | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Hyndford | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Square the Circle | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Take Charge d’Oro | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Venkman | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Big Iron | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Paynt Your Eggs | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Felipe | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Starlin | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mischievous Dancer | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Homefortheweekend | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Pioche Gold | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Obtained | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Off Sixes | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.