November 23, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fashion Island | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Santa Ana Winds | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Canadian Sunset | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Scary Animal | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hot Copy | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bird Key | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mavalous Mavalous | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Revealing Quality | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Donnels Creek | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Augie | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Whiskey Echo | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Principe Guilherme | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sovereign Impact | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Elgar | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flowerpecker | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Joker On Jack | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Axiomo | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Alec and Arthur | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Johnny Unleashed | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Chipofftheoldblock | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Karak | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Toma Todo | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Broken Oath | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Badgeri Candy | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Unsweet Tea | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Street Dazzle | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | My Maiko | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Traci’s Greeley | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Starvana | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Smashville | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Live It Up | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Azlynn’s Dreamer | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alreadytapin | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Delaney Ferry | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Miss Emma’s Song | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | Raggedy Annie | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Mom’s Pass | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Hollee Peach | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Dulcimer Dame | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Lucky Quarters | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Worthaprettypenny | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Simple Story | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Boo’s Gal | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Dulce Maria | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Slainte | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dawdle | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Maddie’s Music | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Shining Colors | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Stage Left | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Grit and Glory | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dr. Hipp | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mo Zone | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lngtermrelationshp | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | One Last Strike | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Violent Storm | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Gold Street | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Eyes of Glory | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mayberry Deputy | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Noble Empire | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Major Fed | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jimmie T | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hidden Promise | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | High Proof | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Profusion | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | My Name Is Phred | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Frontana | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Zypto | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sazerac | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Pryor | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hooray for Harvey | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Belmonte | 5.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Summerduck | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dragon Drew | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Aquadini | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Homeview | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 15 | 11 | Rocky Roma | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Pleasant Sunrise | 30.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Drunken Fridays | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Honduras | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Cadron Flats | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bear Trappe | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Deano | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Tiny Danza | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Excession | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Don Bourbon | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Montana Man | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pow Wow Prince | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ajzal | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Newscaster | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Unwavering | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | McShady | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mr. Big News | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Holy Muchacho | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dreams of Yvonne | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3 | Chewing Gum | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | New Colossus | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Chase the Ghost | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 10 | Incorrigible | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Untraceable | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 9 | Going for Gold | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 17 | 11 | Fireball Shot | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Tell Your Daddy | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Pony Up | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Faversham | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Singapore Flash | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Ecru | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Oasis | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Jumper | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Discovered | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Kadar | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Red Island (IRE) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Determinant | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Elite Class | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Race Driver | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Blood Moon | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gold Endeavor | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Wisdom | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cigar Box | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hail to the Chief | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | See the Pyramids | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jerzees One | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Front Man | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Peerless Brown | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Banana Pepper | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bring Me a Check | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.