November 22, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fancy Fox | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blue Sky in Dixie | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kojo’s Queen | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Angel’s Cut | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nine Martinis | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stormy Memo | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Control Stake | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sevier | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Drena’s Star | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | K Choice | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Flat Lucky | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crosswalk | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Banshee Birdie | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tootsie | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Love Is Alive | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blunt Force | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stroll With Becca | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ready Orb Not | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Moonrags | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Nicely Nicely | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Carpe Noctem | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baozun | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cheeseburger | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Majestic John’s | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Critic | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rum On the Rocks | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Automate | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Karate Hottie | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Liberty Fire | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Critter | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Diva Banker | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Honor With Pride | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tickety Boo | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | My Dark Secret | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sure She’s Grand | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kurilov (CHI) | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Driven to Compete | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | County Court | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Altito | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 5 | Ransack | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scholar Athlete | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Convict Pike | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Derby Champagne | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Cammack | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Cape Angel | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Morning Stride | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Keep Quiet (FR) | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Battle of Blenheim | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Uncle Mitcho | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | New Frontier | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Speed Effect | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bobby Axelrod | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Bueno Bueno Bueno | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sacred Oath | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Bizzy Ride | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Greater Cairo | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seminole Warrior | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sir Michael | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Embellisher | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tempers Rising | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lady McKenzie | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Miss Important | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Seattle Slang | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Rhythm Tree | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forced Family Fun | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sense a Million | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Powder River | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Naval Laughter | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bourbina | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | I Was Looking Up | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Summer Express | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | New Day Dawning | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Loaded | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Miss Bigly | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Grandezza | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Fun Finder | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Field Daisey | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Palace Princess | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | High Road | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Gwendalyn Sue | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Equal Measure | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Speedy Solution | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Strella’s War | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Summer in Saratoga | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Agi’s Cait | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Landon | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Confessing | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Tap Attack | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chitto | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Went | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Super Valentine | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Machine Gunner | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wyoming Conquest | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | The Falcon | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ingenico | 50.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bird in the Hat | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Demi Patrick | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sky Ride | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Can Imagine | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.