November 21, 2019 Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Discernment | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Close to Me | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flashyboy’s Lilsis | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mischievous Girl | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | High Hopes Dance | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dancepark | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Alys Episode | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Orthodox Beat | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Half Moon Maiden | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Olivia’s Duchess | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lucky Lily Be | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Blues Man | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flat Out Love | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chroniqueur | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Diplome | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Flashyboy Bobb | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Social Cat | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | The Vincenator | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Go Get That | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Oliver’s Prayer | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Boots and Saddle | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Rose Crown | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Catcake | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Knight Dash | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tambeaux Fina | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lemondropsmyshot | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Golden Smiles | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stop the Friend | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lizzy’s Star | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Saber Cut | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grace Forever | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Royal Priority | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | All Star Flyer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Runarounddancing | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Exchange Gold | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cayenne | 2.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Thats It Imleaving | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grand Hoga | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sharp Machete | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | U S Officer | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Personal Double | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Big Maurice | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bee Jay Gee | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lip Service | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Montbrooks Miracle | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Party Tarde | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | My Cowgirl | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Eight Grand | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | L L L College Fund | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Acadian Driftwood | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Tiz the Time | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Becky’s Dude | 6.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sassy Mallory | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Gentlemen’s Girl | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rockin’rouxs Best | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Crescent Lace | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Wild for Cathrine | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hard Story | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hawkins Lane | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Jack’s Kiss | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | The Boyz Done It | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mister Mister | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mauk Power | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Fooling Jay | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Donna’s Council | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Slam the Bank | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mainichi Harbor | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Trip Candy | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Freeze Line | 2.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Buffon | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marco’s Tribute | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Clear the Nile | 4.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | Deweycheatemanhowe | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Overlyappealing | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | St. Pete’s Crown | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Pal Kay | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Private Reality | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Campus Leader | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Looking for Bull | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | D’dawson | 1.80 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | D’rocketman | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Holy Sunrise | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Classic Greeley | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Alluring Actor | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Whistling Wind | 4.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ipidate | 4.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Dad Louie | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Smooth Man | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Miss Demeanor | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Charzee Baby | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tap City Baby | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Thegoodwitch | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Malila | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spanish Arch | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Go Selma T | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Red Fern Doll | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She’sasweet Deputy | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Here Comes Homer | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Charming Bullet | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Luke the Drifter | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Eat the Ticket | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Little Man E Dubai | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smooth Warrior | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ide B Stranded | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Too Tuff to Cry | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Golden Choate | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Willy the Whip | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tapizart | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.