November 17, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Baron It All | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Let Me Lead | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Madam Novetzke | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pray for Jake | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Travelin’ Song | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cane Break | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Wicked Wednesday | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | St. Paddy’s Daddy | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mrwilloughby | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Carignan | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Niall | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Axis | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Social Circle | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pass It On | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Daring | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spackle | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Girls Got Track | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Liner | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Green Garnet | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dance the Day Away | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Skip and a Hop | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Promised Fame | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Limage | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Quiet All Around | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Sovay | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 16 | 12 | Abby’s Destiny | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kimberly Frances | 3.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Rebellion | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | St. Louise | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Her Giant | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Abstain | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Champagnerie | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Lisnet | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Book of Love | 10.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Imnotsmall | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Singsong Bird | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Oxbowindy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Platinum Gale | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lonely Private | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Its My Bag Baby | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Deanos Cape | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lafitte’s Fleet | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shashashakemeup | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fast Magic | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pyser’s Orb | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spanish Kingdom | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Skipin On Orchard | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Ted W | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Strut the Ring | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Frost Or Frippery | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Peekacho | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Risky Town | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mark My Way | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Steel Shot | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Satellite | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | High Risk Strategy | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tales of War | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Containment | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Honor Mission | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Gladtobehere | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Opportunistic | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Hansens Mischief | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Elusive d’Oro | 1.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Strong Ending | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Vaya Con Dios | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ready to Roll | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Groom Lake | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | In Charge | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Living Vicariously | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Briefcase Bully | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Fray | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Data Load | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Steeldriver | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Major Fed | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Chief Howcome | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Hoffa | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Rubato | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | High Proof | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Pomp and Pageantry | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Private Collection | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Mane Girl | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Teenage Kicks | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dixie Roulette | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Mischief | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | A Girl Named Jac | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Oooh Barracuda | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cecilia’s a Gem | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sense You Left | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Peruvian Appeal | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Molto Bella | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Somewhere | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vomba | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | What a Fox | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dark Corner | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Honey Parade | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Princess Athena | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Free Cover | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Take Charge Angel | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bluegrass Parkway | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stage Ready | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Beautiful Wall | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Split the Wickets | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lake Nakuru | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Channel Island | 3.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Shore Magic | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jimmy D | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tito Tonight | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rock the Causeway | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | El Ahijado | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Changi | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ucanthankmelater | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lontani | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mine Inspector | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ice Sphere | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | True to Dixie | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Edition | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Greenspan | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Poppy Joe Rocks | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wings Up | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lady’s Weekend | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Misterbluesky | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Derby City | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Montmartre | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Stack Em High | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Helluva Life | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Horsefeathers | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Cj’s Billy’sempire | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.