November 15, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mesange | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Punish | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Magna G Force | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | She Wants More | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vegan Goes Best | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hot N Sweet | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Calika Rose | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | No Va Mas | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bump Bailey | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Getyourmindright | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Equal Justice | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hidden Ruler | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Extra Medium | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stay Happy | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Replete | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sterling Hope | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | My Girl Rocket | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Northern Connect | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sagara | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Champagne Bling | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | As Fast as You Can | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Weightlessness | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Angel’s Cut | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Gemini Journey | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Solomonic | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ruler of the Nile | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mineyerownmalone | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Candy Carlos | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | California Swing | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gettysburg | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Animus | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rock n’ Candy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Aced | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Impact Player | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Radiant Castle | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Unmoored | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sir Truebadour | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lionite | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lighthawk | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miltontown | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Strong Side | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Undercover Lover | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jimmy Joe | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cool Beans | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Boxwood | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lovely Loyree | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Valentine Wish | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Goiaba | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Story Time | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smart Shot | 2.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rushingirl | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cairo Cat | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Truth Seeker | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Iconic | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gigging | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Croatian | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Eisenstaedt | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Front Door | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Violent Ridge | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | My Man Flintstone | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Churn N Burn | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bigmancan | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Approved | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Energizer | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Unthrottled | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lautrec | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ghost Game | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Selleck | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | High Holy | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Kentucky Ghost | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eyes of Glory | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Willfred | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mr. Monomoy | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Be Fierce | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | In Sky We Trust | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Soul Spirit | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Comic Kitten | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Mercy Mercy | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Aspen Summer | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Silver Shaker | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Vanilla Cat | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Artistic | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Strike My Fancy | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Diva Day | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Julia’s Ready | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Tweety Show | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Silent Surprise | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bye Bye Bully’s | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Dynabee | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Spirogyra | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Super Terrific | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Firery Tale | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Icy Street | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Jimmy At Last | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sandbagger Al | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Military Hop | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Johnny Strong | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Aqualityindividual | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Anothrdayatthelake | 4.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Silent Force | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shell Fire | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Maya Solomea | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.