November 14, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Sneads | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bebeau | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Yankee Division | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Final Say | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Single Focus | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Qaabil | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Masterprize | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dreammaster | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Causin’ Trouble | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Prairie Fire | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 6 | Stonefactor | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Linda’s Ballet | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sweet Meadow Mist | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Excess Capacity | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Merlins Muse | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Purely Lucky | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Factoring | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bronco Sally | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kickin Kimberly | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Carlisle Belle | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Goldmakesmesmile | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Water White | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Seaside Retreat | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kansas Kis | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Persisto | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 4 | Lake Avenue | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wicked Happy | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mirabell Mei | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Danzing Dunhill | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Forever Wicked | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Smite | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Justintimeforwine | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Legend of Bam | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Cherokee Song | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Ringgood | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Back Charge | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Mr. Kringle | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Stash My Money | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Feeling Dangerous | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | True Palace | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Princess Victoria | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Viradia | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Stay Fond | 2.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cotton Candy Cutie | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Miss Loyalty | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Blissful Breeze | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zecha | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Unbridledadventure | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Whyisshesoolucky | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Stars Wilburn | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | First Appeal | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | High Jingo | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bank Examiner | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Theaterintheround | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | A Little Faith | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Hollywood Cat | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Sunshine Gal | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Hannah’s Smile | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Forgotten Hero | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Cathy Naz | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Sneakiness | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Hizaam | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sargeant Drive | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Soul Fight | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Violent Delights | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Monmouth Dr | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Halstaat | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spectator Sport | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dull Knife | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bebe Banker | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chuckles | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Spirit Animal | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Everyonelovesjames | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Clear Vision | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Digital Footprint | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blockade | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Road to Meath | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Gauguin (GER) | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Chantry Flats | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zealous | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Conviction Trade | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Alphalfa | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Token | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Exchange Fever | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Clamor | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | The Joke’s On You | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Clear the Ramp | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Plebe | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Capt. Courageous | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | No More Miracles | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | After Prom Party | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Millionaire Joe | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sporting Art | 6.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Straitouta Congtin | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gongheifatchoy | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kid Chocolate | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Jet for Andy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.