Site icon Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 9, 2019

November 9, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Try SFTB Plus for Free

$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.

Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!

Learn More

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Clever Serve 2.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Diamondcoat 2.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Lunar Approach 2.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Glamorized 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 So Honest 15.00 4 8-1
3 3 P Boo 10.00 4.5 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Colorincolonel 2.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 My Dark Secret 4.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Kimberley Dream 2.50 4.5 8-1
6 6 Cook Memories 6.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Sure She’s Grand 5.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Morty 6.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Vice Versa 2.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Early Mischief 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 One for Richie 2.50 4.2 8-1
6 6 Make Noise 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Cabot Trail 4.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Stormin El Prado 15.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 4 Ivyetsu 2.50 2.4 5-1
9 5 Sa Font Salada 3.00 3.5 7-1
12 6 Sista of War 3.50 4 8-1
2 1 Longpants Required 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 2 Go Stormin Girl 10.00 5.1 10-1
17 8 Georgia Dawn 5.00 5.1 10-1
13 7 Pact 12.00 5.4 10-1
4 3 She’s a Deal 20.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Tiz Penney 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Veer 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Tomorra 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Catherineofaragon 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Teller to Sing 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Regal Passage 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Sursum Corda 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Lucky Polly 2.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Dream On Gorgeous 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Paigely 3.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Hot Copy 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Take Charge Cacky 5.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 She’s Hot Today 2.50 4.7 9-1
2 2 Princess in Charge 6.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Dixie Moll 6.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 St. Louise 12.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Final Truth 12.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Whoa Nellie 3.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Youngest Daughter 5.00 4 7-1
5 5 Still There 3.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Out for a Spin 2.50 4.1 8-1
6 6 Princess Causeway 3.50 5.2 10-1
1 1 Oh So Terrible 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Sweet Arithmetic 15.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Our Bay B Ruth 6.00 2.7 5-1
4 2 East Moon 3.00 3.8 7-1
11 8 Straitouttapopcorn 20.00 4.1 8-1
10 7 Cubs Win 6.00 4.4 8-1
9 6 Oh My 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 4 True Dream 20.00 5.9 11-1
2 1 Don’t Tell Marge 10.00 6.7 13-1
7 5 Roussalka 20.00 6.8 13-1
14 9 Devant (FR) 4.00 7.5 14-1
16 16 Rushingirl 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Drinks On Me 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Joy Nidera (ARG) 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Orageuse 4.50 SCRATCH
12 12 V J’s Bet 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Tryon Summer 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Arabella Bella 4.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Aife 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Weekend Fun 2.50 2.4 5-1
6 6 Speighty Shirl 8.00 2.5 5-1
9 7 Halama 10.00 3.4 7-1
1 1 Kilbarry Lady 15.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Fashion Frame 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Temisina 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Sweet Bay 15.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Diamond and Silks 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Further Lane 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Art Collector 3.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Souper Dormy 3.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Lykan 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Shanghai Moon 5.00 5.6 10-1
4 4 Munn Passage 12.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Mr. Tip 8.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Self Taught 5.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Nano 10.00 7 13-1
7 7 Finnick the Fierce 15.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Commonwealth Turf S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 10 Faraway Kitten 6.00 4.4 8-1
11 8 Mr Dumas 6.00 4.8 9-1
5 2 Marquee Prince 8.00 5 9-1
10 7 Armistice Day 6.00 5.7 11-1
6 3 Spectacular Gem 6.00 5.9 11-1
15 11 Proliferate 15.00 6 11-1
8 5 Tiz Plus 15.00 6.2 12-1
7 4 Tracksmith 5.00 6.8 13-1
9 6 Knicks Go 12.00 6.8 13-1
12 9 Louder Than Bombs 8.00 7.7 14-1
2 2 Osage Moon 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Tobacco Road 50.00 9.4 18-1
3 3 Clint Maroon (GB) 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Pirate’s Punch 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Journeyman 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Clear Vision 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Nola Win 3.00 2.6 5-1
10 9 Irish Roar (IRE) 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 7 New York Style 3.50 3.2 6-1
4 3 Great Sense 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Not Fade Away 4.00 4.7 9-1
7 6 Money On My Mind 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 5 Sir Michael 12.00 5.5 10-1
9 8 Musical Man 15.00 5.8 11-1
3 2 Hex 20.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Auto Correct 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

Exit mobile version