November 8, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Italian Charm | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Conquest Windycity | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Shut the Box | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Driven by History | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Earnednevergiven | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Curlins Vow | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | No Funny Biz | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fridaynitestar | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Righteous Ruby | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | A. P. Princess | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lovely Flash | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Alizee | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Visit | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | War Ballad | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Peace Love Bread | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Blunt Force | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Shanghai’s Dream | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Predator | 1.40 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Baudette Blizzard | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Katama Bay | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Digital Star | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Company Clown | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Natural History | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | J Rob | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Singer McGee | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Limbo’s Promise | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Name Is Phred | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ready and Rich | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Creme de Cerise | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bird Dog | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miracle Hill | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lea Ridge | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jackfruit | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Goose Drank Wine | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Released | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Court and Spark | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Newellton | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Gold Star Mama | 1.80 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | Broken Oath | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Talaalah | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Just a Look | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Creative Contessa | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Joy of Learning | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cobra Casablanca | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wind Dreamer | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sara Sea | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Hands Up | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mavalous Mavalous | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | My Sweet Baboo | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | More Moet Pleez | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Delaney Ferry | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Always | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Square the Circle | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Delinquent | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Professional | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Tommytoshort | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Espo | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zartastic | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Hurry Back | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Brilliant Decision | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Rickhouse | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Curlin | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Shared Sense | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ahsad | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lynn’s Map | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Frank Senior | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cernan | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Mayberry Deputy | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Yashima | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Wisdom | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Obiwan | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Untap | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dreams of Yvonne | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Total Destruction | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bean | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Indy Takes Charge | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kodikova (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Western Taffy | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | American Legend | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Misty Blue | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Turtle Trax | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Takeitback | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Into Humor | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lil Miss Hot Mess | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Baileston Lassie | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 4 | Patriot Drive | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 15 | 6 | Haunt | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dunph | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | December Seven | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Combatant | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Cowboy Creed | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Applicator | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Herecomesyourman | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Cuestion de Tiempo | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | My Bariley | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Secretary At War | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | I Can Do Anything | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Bandar | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Battle of Blenheim | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Baratti | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Never Even Called | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Long Gray Line | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Come On Venezuela | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Zing Zang | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Moment | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | American Sea | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kentucky Allstar | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Palladium | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bear Trappe | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Valycove | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Paynt Your Eggs | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Take That for Data | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | J W Ruckus | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.