Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 8, 2019

November 8, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Italian Charm 4.00 2.4 4-1
6 5 Conquest Windycity 3.00 3.5 7-1
8 7 Shut the Box 3.50 3.5 7-1
7 6 Driven by History 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Earnednevergiven 6.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Curlins Vow 6.00 4.6 9-1
3 2 No Funny Biz 8.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Fridaynitestar 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Righteous Ruby 3.00 2.6 5-1
5 4 A. P. Princess 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 6 Lovely Flash 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 3 Alizee 3.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Lucky Visit 5.00 4.1 8-1
3 2 War Ballad 10.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Peace Love Bread 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Blunt Force 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Shanghai’s Dream 5.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Predator 1.40 2.8 5-1
11 10 Baudette Blizzard 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Katama Bay 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Digital Star 12.00 4.1 8-1
10 9 Company Clown 12.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Natural History 12.00 4.8 9-1
9 8 J Rob 12.00 5.7 11-1
7 6 Singer McGee 20.00 5.9 11-1
8 7 Limbo’s Promise 15.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 My Name Is Phred 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ready and Rich 2.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Creme de Cerise 3.50 4.2 8-1
5 5 Bird Dog 12.00 5 9-1
2 2 Miracle Hill 3.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Lea Ridge 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Jackfruit 10.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Goose Drank Wine 6.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Released 30.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Court and Spark 20.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Newellton 6.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Gold Star Mama 1.80 4.3 8-1
15 12 Broken Oath 4.00 4.8 9-1
13 11 Talaalah 5.00 4.9 9-1
10 9 Just a Look 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Creative Contessa 6.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Joy of Learning 6.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Cobra Casablanca 8.00 6 11-1
4 4 Wind Dreamer 15.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Sara Sea 15.00 6.7 13-1
11 10 Hands Up 12.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Mavalous Mavalous 30.00 10.3 19-1
9 9 My Sweet Baboo 4.00 SCRATCH
12 12 More Moet Pleez 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Delaney Ferry 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Always 2.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Square the Circle 6.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Delinquent 2.00 5 9-1
3 3 Professional 12.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Tommytoshort 10.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Espo 20.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Zartastic 12.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Hurry Back 10.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Hitthegroundrunnin 15.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Brilliant Decision 20.00 8.8 17-1
10 10 Rickhouse 20.00 9.3 18-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Lucky Curlin 3.50 2 4-1
11 10 Shared Sense 3.00 3 6-1
12 11 Ahsad 15.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Lynn’s Map 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Frank Senior 3.50 4.8 9-1
5 5 Cernan 5.00 5.7 11-1
13 12 Mayberry Deputy 12.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Yashima 12.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Bourbon Wisdom 20.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Obiwan 30.00 7.7 14-1
7 7 Untap 20.00 8 15-1
9 9 Dreams of Yvonne 30.00 8.9 17-1
10 10 Total Destruction 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bean 3.50 3.2 6-1
10 10 Indy Takes Charge 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Kodikova (IRE) 10.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Western Taffy 3.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 American Legend 10.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Misty Blue 12.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Turtle Trax 5.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Takeitback 8.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Into Humor 12.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Lil Miss Hot Mess 10.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 Baileston Lassie 30.00 9.5 18-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 4 Patriot Drive 3.50 2.8 5-1
15 6 Haunt 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 2 Dunph 10.00 3.7 7-1
2 1 December Seven 10.00 3.8 7-1
10 5 Combatant 6.00 3.9 7-1
7 3 Cowboy Creed 30.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Applicator 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Herecomesyourman 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Cuestion de Tiempo 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 My Bariley 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Secretary At War 2.50 SCRATCH
11 11 I Can Do Anything 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Bandar 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Battle of Blenheim 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Baratti 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 11 Never Even Called 5.00 4 8-1
6 5 Long Gray Line 10.00 4.8 9-1
9 8 Come On Venezuela 6.00 4.9 9-1
3 2 Zing Zang 15.00 5.5 10-1
7 6 Moment 6.00 5.5 10-1
8 7 American Sea 8.00 5.7 11-1
10 9 Kentucky Allstar 15.00 5.7 11-1
5 4 Palladium 6.00 6.2 12-1
11 10 Bear Trappe 15.00 6.2 12-1
2 1 Valycove 30.00 6.6 12-1
4 3 Paynt Your Eggs 15.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Take That for Data 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 J W Ruckus 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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