November 7, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Park Ridge Benny | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Niigon’s Glory | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | El Venue | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stay Home | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ransack | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | On the Lam | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Willow Ridge | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Siteenparksidelane | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zombie | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Line Judge | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Whereshetoldmetogo | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Eight Town | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cove Blue | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ballard High | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Madison’s Luna | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tizpure | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Homefortheweekend | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Georgie Hyphen (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Charlie’sarchangel | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Omen of Change | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pioche Gold | 10.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Obtained | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mischievous Dancer | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sergeant McNerney | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Seek the Peak | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Traveling | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Peppered | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tidal Effect | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Passion Play | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Treasure Trove | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Conative | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Moon Launch | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dancing Destroyer | 1.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Congrats Answer | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Black Kat Taps | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Green Monster | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Queen of Carnival | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She’s Mischief | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Erv’s Wench | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Adhwaa | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Auction Fever | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Quarters | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bat Bat | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Miss Is Zippy | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Kertara | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Encinitas | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Special Reserve | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Pure Speculation | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Edgemont Road | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Shared Legacy | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Boom Five Thousand | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Mr Opportunity | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Line of Gold | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Boss Life | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Button Box | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Amani Warrior | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Hard Count | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | North Point | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | First Things First | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Shorely | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Senor Jobim | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cadron Flats | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | He’s No Bull | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Firehorn | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pryor | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Future Abundance | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mason A. P. | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Homeview | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Scars Are Cool | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mo Zone | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tank Commander | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hitch | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Not Very Gentle | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Determinant | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fireball Shot | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Verve’s Humor | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Grit and Glory | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | High Regard | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Passionof the Nile | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Solar Kitten | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Brunette Princess | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Joyful Frolic | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Keeper Real | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sorrentina Lemon | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Makealitlemischief | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Devant (FR) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Delta’s Kingdom | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Zofelle (IRE) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Slam Dunk | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Recoded | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Spartanka | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Loaded | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bird Map | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Jeweled Princess | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Take Charge Patti | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fall Moon | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hollee Peach | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Flipardini | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bumble of Love | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tetrahydro | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.