November 6, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Italian Justice | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Addison | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mi Chachis Intenta | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Take Charge Cece | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Commish | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Niva | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Secret Revolution | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | She’s a Lady Griz | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Carpe Noctem | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Allgrit | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Majestic John’s | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vandross | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Parked It | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Critic | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Kitty’s Promise | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Big Boss Lady | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Moorac | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Queen of Verona | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Marquee Spirit | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Crown Me | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Happy Peddler | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Opportune | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cecilia’s a Gem | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lastbeatoftheband | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Birdie Blue | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | French Quarter | 1.20 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Kissthatbabygoodby | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Say It Ain’t So | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Dingdingdingding | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Cha Mono | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Swamp Ruler | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Steel Shot | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 4 | All Hansens Ondeck | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Red Blue and True | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Our Snowflake | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lunar Orbit | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | That’s Great | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Blinkers | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Have No Fear | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stellar Stiletto | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flash n’ Dance | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flatoutandfoxy | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hickory Hill | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flight Time (BRZ) | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | One Man Party | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Im the Best I Know | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Colonel Pike | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Icatiro | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Tee Tee | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mustang Cat | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hugh B. | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 10 | Longclaw | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Dark Oak | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 9 | Palace Coup | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Final Breeze | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Kierkegaard | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Cruel Summer | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Gambler | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Unwavering | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 16 | Total Destruction | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Querencia | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Koko Star | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Summer Palace | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Jupestar | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Fan Favorite | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Lemon Drop Candy | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Conquistador Show | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Young Phillip | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | He’s the Souperwon | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Speed Effect | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Majors Vindication | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kansas City Zip | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Commanding Candy | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cooke Brothers | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Wrath | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Trashtalkinyankee | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Optimal | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baringer Spring | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Georgia Deputy | 50.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Big Cheese | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Saracosa | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon Chill | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Storm Rising | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Final Cut | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mo Gayle | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flower House | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Unchained (IRE) | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Macabre | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Loving Moment | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Kiss More | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Platinum Paynter | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lady Rosalie (IRE) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Moving Moon (IRE) | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cirrusly | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lil Hitchhiker | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Princesa Blanca | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Henley Hill (GB) | 4.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Keepthe Main Thing | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Miss Mosaic | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Elke Do Jaguarete (BRZ) | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.