November 2, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Punish | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wedding Belle | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | She Wants More | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pastoral | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Girls Got Track | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rhoda’s Jewell | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady David | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Veilazig | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fake News and Data | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Book of Love | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 11 | 11 | The Ash Factor | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Trapped Town | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Exemplar | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Third Day | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kurilov (CHI) | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Starship Zeus | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Coal Truth | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | British Humor | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Unapologetic Me | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pass It On | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Novella | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Heaven Escape | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Channel Princess | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Banshee Birdie | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Trick of the Tail | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Blunt Force | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Super Terrific | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Korczak | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sultry Samurai | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Reelfoot | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Panforte Di Siena | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Unveiling | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Written Permission | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seek N Justice | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Harlan’s Vador (ARG) | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flash of Silver | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Oh Bene | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Too Perfect | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Why Stop Now | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Pull Me Back | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Pegasus Moon | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Pioneer Spirit | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Timeline | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | C Z Rocket | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr Darcy | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Thirstforlife | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Remembering Rita | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Guest Suite | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Bango | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Little Menace | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blip | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Winning Impression | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Liberty Blue | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Strong Ending | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Clifton Park | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tadeo | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tenderfoot | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Front Man | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | No Shirt No Shoes | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Match Runner | 15.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chill Haze | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Singer McGee | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | Hard Pass | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3A | 3 | Executive Branch | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Embellisher | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Chief Executive | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Majestic West | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Icon | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Blackline | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Bizzy Ride | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Litany | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Extravagant Praise | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Midnight Patriot | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tornado Boy | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Chilukki S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mylady Curlin | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Divine Queen | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cairenn | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sally’s Curlin | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chocolate Martini | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | She’s Pretty Lucky | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Still There | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Originator | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Focused | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Domonette | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Reenie D | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ambassador Luna | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sensible Myth | 4.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baroness Vontrappe | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sugarsugarsugar | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flat Meadow | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lifefullofreinbows | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Brittney On Blades | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Courtmewithcarats | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dance Rhythms | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Tia Flor | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | La Femme Royale | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Bet On Sunshine S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Recruiting Ready | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mr. Jagermeister | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bobby’s Wicked One | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Do Share | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Batterbatterswing | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wilbo | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zipp On By | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | New York Central | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Crow | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Cowboy Creed | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.