October 31, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Social Circle | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Swiss Dot | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Carolina Beach | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ready Orb Not | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trust in Love | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Skip and a Hop | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Symphony Hall | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Street Flyer | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Contendress | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Imajimmycreed | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Competitive Queen | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tooreadytobid | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Alloutpatricia | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Eagle Pass | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hinton | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Curlins Vow | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | County Court | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Adulator | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | El Rubio | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Strong Yen | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Remedy | 1.60 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Sweet Diane | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Rahway | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1A | 6 | Beautiful Tale | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Shacklette | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 4 | Court Surprise | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 2 | I’mluckysgirl | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | So Honest | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Baytown Milli | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | A Wicked Wildcat | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Indellibly | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dust to Diamonds | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Quiet Dawn | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Miss Jacqueline | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stelia | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mountain Melodies | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Speak English | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flugel Binder | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Smartizar | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Super Cassidy | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Lucky Kentucky Gal | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | West Coast Temple | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | My Sixth Sense | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Armchair Jockey | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | One Last Strike | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Run Rite | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Tito Tonight | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Changi | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Beam | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Mystical Moon | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 4 | Stewards Rules | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Club Car | 1.20 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tipazar | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Whimsical Muse | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nurse Sadie | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Zebecca | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Awesome One | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Between the Hedges | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Quality too Spare | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lady to the Max | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sister Hanan | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Unmatchable | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Captivating Moon | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Noble Thought | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Troubling Moon | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Apricot | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mississippi | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Krewe Chief | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Hawaakom | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Eskenforit | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Chewing Gum | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | The Rock Says | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kadar | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Face of Victory | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 9 | Claytnthelionheart | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Kaziranga | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Discovered | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Kid Lemuel | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Ransack | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 8 | Morning Social | 4.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | British Humor | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 5 | Red Island (IRE) | 4.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Untraceable | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 15 | Fireball Shot | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | El Ahijado | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | One Man Party | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Drunken Fridays | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Honduras | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Top Mention | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dragon Drew | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Regal Look | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Felipe | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Town Drunk | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Starlin | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rock Me | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Top Credentials | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.