October 26, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Miss Firecracker | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Blackberry Lisa | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Crafty Lady | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Herculina | 1.60 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dawdle | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s a Lady Griz | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Ready to Charm | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Highland Lass | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Blue Sky in Dixie | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Full of Grace | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Ximena | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Luna Fortis | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Evil Ways | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Absolute Love | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sir Winsalot | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Gray Blur | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kid Mercury | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Street Ready | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Memorable | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Prefect | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tecumseh’s War | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | The Dustman | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Macho Jack | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Grove Daddy | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grand Atlantic | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Josie Boy | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Brand New Key | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Reelfoot | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rivers Rising | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Hidden Talent | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4A | 4 | Proud Nation | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Golden Alexander | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Wells Bayou | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Descent | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Breezy Money | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vaya Con Dios | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Matheson | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | My Man Flintstone | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Unthrottled | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Carmichael | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Arareco Lake | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pink Scatillac | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nuestra Union | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Girlfriend Rocket | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sugar Love | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Quotation | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Every Single Day | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Big Time Delivery | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Twelve Monarchs | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Heavenly Sis | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Cash Out | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | With Dignity | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Layla Noor | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Coco Channel | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Call Me Kayla | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Don’t Tell Marge | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Delta’s Kingdom | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Joy of Treasure | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Off the Record | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dizzy Sight | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Uber Kirk | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Botero | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bybee | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Proschema | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Holly Blame | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Duplicator | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Howard Roark | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Hagyard Fayette S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tom’s d’Etat | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bal Harbour | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Great Day (ARG) | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr Freeze | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mocito Rojo | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Core Beliefs | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tenfold | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Everfast | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Own Agenda | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Big Dollar Bill | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 11 | Liam’s Legend | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Suggested | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cask | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Deanos Cape | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Bye Bye Melvin | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10A | 7 | Went | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Tradin Up | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | D’guapo | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blanket of Roses | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Rubato | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13A | 10 | Handy | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cardiac Kid | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Fan Favorite | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Summer Palace | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.