October 18, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Peppered | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Final Cut | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tidal Effect | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Coworker | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moonster | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | New Day Dawning | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Path Not Taken (GB) | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rain Dance | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Repossession (IRE) | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Longpants Required | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Obstinate | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sursum Corda | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sunnymede Dream | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | I Was Looking Up | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Diamond Hill | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fireside Kitten | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Causeway Royce | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Kertara | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Kitten Empress | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Bundle of Joy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Velvet Crush | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Tiny Danza | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Catholic Guilt | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Instigated | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bird King | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wild Cat West | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Good Scout | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Makbule | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Drew | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Not Again Jackie | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fit My Tack | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Cold Smoke | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Topshop | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Man He Can | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mr. Roger | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Go Go Girolamo | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | K W Captain Flint | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Shaky Connection | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Main Factor | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Run for the Gold | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Davidic Line | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Lead Guitar | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chelsea Cloisters | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Galina | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Worthington | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Golden Orb | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Even Beat | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ruby Trust | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hidden Facts | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Bentley’s Dream | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Elle’s Town | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Talbeya | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Del Mar Babe | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Rosie Bear | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Insane Maclean | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Reciprocal | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bayerness | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Jilted Bride | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lustica | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Recoded | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mi Bella | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Private Collection | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Olho de Mel | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | O Seraphina | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Mackenzie’s Girl | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Raison d’Etre | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Tickle | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bells of War | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Souter (GB) | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Emmaus (IRE) | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Cullum Road | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Strike the Flag | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Crosstown Shootout | 50.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Choo Choo | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Afleet Ascent | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Honovi | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Tea Time | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Secretary At War | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Sniper Kitten | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Casino Star | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Nikki Beach | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Motion Emotion | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shanghai Rain | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Proud Emma | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | High Regard | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lightscameraaction | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Idle Hour | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Drinking Dixie | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Crafty’s Dream | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ready to Runaway | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Pin Oak Valley View S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Catch a Bid | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blowout (GB) | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Hard Legacy | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Maxim Rate | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Lady Prancealot (IRE) | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Winter Sunset | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Turf War | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Carnival Colors (GB) | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 15 | 14 | Dalika (GER) | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wildlife | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | The Mackem Bullet (IRE) | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Princess Causeway | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Story Time | 30.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Solar Kitten | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | She’sonthewarpath | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Fra Mauro | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Violent Storm | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Come On Venezuela | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Troy Ounce | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She Love Me | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | New Year’s Luck | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cowboys Dream | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tactical Quality | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Brilliant Decision | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.