October 17, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Da Gold Room | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Strike Appeal | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ahsad | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dark Oak | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mr Matuschek | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Subliminalcriminal | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Achievable | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bee Catcher | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Perfect Star | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Embrace the Grind | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Water Wall | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lastfortinofamily | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fan Favorite | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Topshop | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Crealock | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Liam’s Legend | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sistas Ready | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hilltop Harmony | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Daring | 1.60 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Double Oaked | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Skip and a Hop | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Noire | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Snap Hook | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gigging | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Sea | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Take Charge d’Oro | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Roman Creed | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Omen of Change | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Aficionado | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Law of the Land | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sunrise Kitten | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sinatra Devil | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Court Sky | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Midnight Jostar | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lastchanceatglory | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Final Breeze | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Jarreau | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Free Spender | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Untap | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Handy | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Cardiac Kid | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Deanos Cape | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Cask | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Louwit | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Pick Up the Fone | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Persian Queen | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Street Flyer | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Peaches and Nuts | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Symphony Hall | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Little Red Frog | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fed Policy | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3A | 3 | La Signare (FR) | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Winning Envelope | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Our Bay B Ruth | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lake Local | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Oh My | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | More Fun Again | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aife | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | East Moon | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Lessons From Avery | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Roussalka | 50.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Warrior’s Way | 50.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Rushingirl | 30.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Arabella Bella | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Nikki Beach | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Country Chick | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Originator | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Complexifier | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Letsstaypositive | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Analyze Your Risk | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Feeling It | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Morning Darling | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Souper Dormy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Long Weekend | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Sycamore S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Marzo | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nakamura | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Zumurudee | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Focus Group | 1.60 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Blended Citizen | 15.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Postulation | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Space Mountain | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | My Boy Jack | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Tea Time | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Golden Dragon | 50.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Changi | 50.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Poseidon’s Passion | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dust to Diamonds | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Heroic Officer | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sweet Cocoa | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Our Lizzy Lou | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kitty’s Promise | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rathrbluckythngood | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | L. A. Star | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cyclone Millie | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Panterita | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Her Gold Mine | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gold Ladybug | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seabeck Mourning | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lucky Kentucky Gal | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Bluegrass Sky | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.