October 16, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Abby in Pink | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spearette | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Buch of Daisies | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Caspers Run | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | She’s Alotta Woman | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | War Eagle’s Love | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Kristina | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Loran Holiday (ARG) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Han Sense | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Exemplar | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Colour Guard | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | December Seven | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Powerful Ally | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | California Night | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Good Move | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Paint the Corners | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | World Riot | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | C P Quality | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lucy’s Town | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sunset Paula Jo | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bella Moon | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | As Fast as You Can | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet N Wicked | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Dawn’s Early Light | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Twixy Cat | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Visual Artist | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sky Ride | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Revved | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cane Break | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Adhhar | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Axis | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Carignan | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Little Dragon | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wicked Wednesday | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Palace Exchange | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mr. Roger | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Run for the Gold | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mrwilloughby | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Go Go Girolamo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Luck Money | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hurricane Breeze | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Edgee Angel | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sista of War | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pass the Plate | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Party Goer | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Complete Surprise | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Suggestive | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Sneak | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lemon Drop Tini | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sky Factor | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Andiama | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Almighty War | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Memory Moment | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sunnymede Dream | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Dixieland Traffic | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Blood Curdling | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Indy Takes Charge | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Joysome | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cofactor | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Josie | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Nothingbutflowers | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Misty Blue | 5.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Majestic Edge | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Integral | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Judy’s Way | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ring Leader | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Letsstaypositive | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Emaraaty (GB) | 1.40 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Patriot Drive | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Combatant | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Go Away | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tigers Rule | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Louder Than Bombs | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crosswalk | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Storm Runner | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Navy Armed Guard | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Lascaux | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tobacco Road | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Epic (ARG) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Mr Dumas | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Imperial Mission | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Lost in Limbo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Credit Swap | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Takechargmatriarch | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Stolen Beauty | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | I’mabarnkat | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Its a Ford | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Vegan Goes Best | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Traci’s Greeley | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alreadytapin | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cape Bliss | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gallus Mag | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Book of Love | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.