October 11, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Odie | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Super Terrific | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wrath | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Alex of Ice | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Echelon | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Atthepearlygates | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Popcorn for Eddie | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | U. S. Warrior | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Cabot Trail | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Roan Like the Wind | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Written Permission | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Texas Line Dance | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Cigar City | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Scooter’s Boy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Soul Wind | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cowboy Rhythm | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chief Know It All | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Honor Mission | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mallard’s Bro | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Celerity | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | British Humor | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gray Magician | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | En Wye Cee | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Night Ops | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Haunt | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Harvey Wallbanger | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pirate’s Punch | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Zabava | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Classical Magic | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Art Buff | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hat Tip | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jordan’s Kitten | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mucha Mezquina | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Folly | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tweety Show | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lucky Move | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Badgeri Candy | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Ashley’s New Shoes | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Between the Hedges | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | On Deck | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hot Copy | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Punish | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | My Maiko | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Nuestra Union | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Upgrade Me | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Indomitable Spirit | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Shesdiamonite | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Raggedy Annie | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mizzen Beau | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Italian Justice | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tapigal | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hollee Peach | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She’s Xtremely Hot | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Glass Ceiling | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Rhythm Tree | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Saxony | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Elizabeth T | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Le Brise | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cairo Express | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bizzee Channel | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chewing Gum | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Proliferate | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Shootin the Breeze | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | J Zar | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pali High | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tank Commander | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Conative | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Strike | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | El Ahijado | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Sherkali (IRE) | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cha Vez | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ransack | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Tito Tonight | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Ecru | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Starship Zeus | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Tench | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Young Phillip | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mutakaamil | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dizzy Sight | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Luna’s in Charge | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Edgemont Road | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Queen’s Mason | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bueno Bueno Bueno | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Executive Branch | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Midnight Patriot | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Real Man | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Money On My Mind | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Buffalo Trace Franklin County S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 7 | Girls Know Best | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Oleksandra (AUS) | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Morticia | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Painting Corners | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Violent Times | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Ruby Notion | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | A Little Bit Me | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 16 | 10 | Take These Chains (IRE) | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Miss Gossip (IRE) | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Beechwood Ella (IRE) | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stillwater Cove | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Hotshot Anna | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Rocky Policy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Goldwood | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Change of Control | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | La Dame Blanche | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 10 | Pete Marwick | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Oashaar | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Stormy Pacific | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sumner | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8A | 6 | Satellite | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Whole Lotta Luck | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | High Above | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Due to His Charm | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tachi | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Obtained | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chasingthegame | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Inmyfathersimage | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Junket | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.