October 9, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Eastside Boy | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Treasure Trove | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bird | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | King Ford | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | War Veteran | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Oro de Tejano | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sea Shark | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Who’syourfavorite | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Tell Your Daddy | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Embellisher | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blankenbaker | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shared Legacy | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Contractor Bill | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hypnotist | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | King of Fortune | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mungojerrie | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chief of Joy | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Alexander Hamilton | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Donnels Creek | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Runningwscissors | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Senor Jobim | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | El Asesino | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Musical America | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Elgar | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | K Choice | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Augie | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Hurricane Highway | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dreaming Diamonds | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bold Esther | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | She Be Addie | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Its Cold in Dehere | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Socata | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Karate Hottie | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rogue Too | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Nine Martinis | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wosie | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hoptown Honey | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Perfecta | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Weightlessness | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hard Count | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Life Mission | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bold Paynter | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Times Square | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fantastry (BRZ) | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ramsey Solution | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Attorney Tim | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lookin High | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Triggerman | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Count Again | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Honest Mischief | 1.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Uber Kirk | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Airtouch | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pony Up | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Breaking News | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tight Ten | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | American Mandate | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bybee | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bebop Shoes | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Jpmorgan Chase Jessamine S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Jezebel’s Kitten | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Ask Bailey | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Indochine | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sweet Melania | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Morning Gold | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Swanage | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | High On Gin | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Envied | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Takeitback | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 15 | 14 | Lemon Scat | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fujairah | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Diamond Sparkles | 6.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Eye of a Soldier | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Witez | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Soothsaying | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Hollee Peach | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Ready and Rich | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Smart Warrior | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | New York Style | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Panforte Di Siena | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Babeswildweekend | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Trashtalkinyankee | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Korczak | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Smart Arch | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Populist | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Campaign Spy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Holly Sun | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Sneads | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.