October 4, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Got My Mo | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lewys Vaporizer | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Riv | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Niigon’s Glory | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bordini | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Irritator | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Spezia | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stay Home | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Containment | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dark Arden | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Park Ridge Benny | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Bajan Cash | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Pole Setter | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Looking At Bikinis | 1.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Boldor | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Regally Irish | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Knicks Go | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | I’m River | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Royal Urn | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Lngtermrelationshp | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dr. Hipp | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Croatian | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fort Peck | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Iconic | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Never Even Called | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Zing Zang | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | V Tach M. D. | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | American Sea | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Perfect Beam | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tobacco Road | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Herecomesyourman | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bemma’s Boy | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stella d’Oro | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Apreciado | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Surf Shack | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Volgograd | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Murry Spur | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Majestic Valley | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Fast Dreamer | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lykan | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Energizer | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Blip | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Boss Onthe Horizon | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Unthrottled | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Be Fierce | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Not Again Jackie | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Selleck | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | J Rob | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Perfect Star | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Obiwan | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Predator | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Churn N Burn | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Super Valentine | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Good Scout | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Evil Lyn | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ununderstandable | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Jingle | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fifthatnarraganset | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sound Machine | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Baileston Lassie | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Duplicitous | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Into Humor | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Inveterate | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Craft Woods | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Snaffle | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady McKenzie | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Urban Fairytale | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Moorac | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | English Escort | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | She Can’t Sing | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Regal Passage | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Kona Kai | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Citrus Bloom | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boo Woo Baby | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Broadway Lady | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Busby Spring | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mizzen Beau | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Suggestive | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Whitmore | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Promises Fulfilled | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Recruiting Ready | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hog Creek Hustle | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Engage | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Pastime | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Zipp On By | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cove Blue | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Lexitonian | 50.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Diamond Oops | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Heartwood | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Darley Alcibiades S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Perfect Alibi | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Western Taffy | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sequin | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Heir of Light | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | British Idiom | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Alandra | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gone Glimmering | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Micheline | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | How Ironic | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Three D Flag | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spitefulness | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Osaka Girl | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 16 | 12 | Lucky Polly | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Across | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Meritaten | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Caribbean Kitten | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 15 | 11 | Fate Factor | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Enthroned | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Copper Quest | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Creative Legacy | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lili’s Song | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Titan’s Treasure | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Art Aficionado | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Amanite | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Prosser’s Kitten | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Graysonsmacho Gal | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Fall Moon | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.