September 29, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Its a Ford | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Final Adventure | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Garden Affair | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flower House | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sacred Lady | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Actress On Board | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Natasha | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Harms Way | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lil Hitchhiker | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | French Quarter | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pete Marwick | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cedar Creek | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rock n’ Candy | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Soul of Discretion | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Colonel Pike | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tale of Fame | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Red Blue and True | 50.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Buster Brown Boy | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Artegon | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Utmost Intensity | 50.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Zombie | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sterling Miss | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Annathela | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Skamania | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | V J’s Bet | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Sister Madi | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Court Surprise | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bootsy’s Hadenough | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hint of Mint | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Have No Fear | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Thea Bee | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Visit | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Ginny B | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stellar Stiletto | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Angel’s Cut | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Speed too Tume | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rubys Memory | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Flatoutandfoxy | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kitty Express | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hero of Gold | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Orb’s Soul | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Abounding | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Wedontbelieveher | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nodoubtabouther | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Better and Better | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Little Red Frog | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Hideaway | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Super Legs | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Queen of Carnival | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | She’s a Lady Griz | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Longleggedlaverne | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dynamite Gift | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Mi Bella | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Glass Ceiling | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Sassy King | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Aquadini | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zartastic | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Take Charge d’Oro | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mr Midtown | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Southern Myth | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Tactical Quality | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dixie Zapper | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sergeant McNerney | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Veritas | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Fra Mauro | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Millwood | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Hussar | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Lunar Orbit | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lady of Luxury | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Love to Learn | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Super Wonder Girl | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Miss Hannah | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bonnet | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Twice Around | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Templuna | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Adheretome | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mama Don’t Preach | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Necker Island | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Banks Island | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hansens Mischief | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Catholic Guilt | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Noble Empire | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sharecropper | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lynn’s Map | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Feisty Bird | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Code Runner | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Zarmae | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Suvorov’s Hero | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Street Danza | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Bango | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Unthrottled | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Fenwick Station | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Memorable | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nicely Nicely | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sea Bee Salute | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | More Than Pride | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Majestic John’s | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shackleford’s Joy | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Sir Winsalot | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Beyond Gone | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Double Axel | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sugar Love | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pink Scatillac | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Carli | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lemon Chill | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | La Vida | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Zebecca | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tenacious Jewel | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Time Delivery | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tripple Step | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.