September 29, 2019 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Annie Rocks | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | A Dixie Twister | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bareeqa | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hoponthebusgus | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Alabama Bound | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Awesome Quick | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Puparee | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | The Honest Toun | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Seven Is Heaven | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Odin’s Steed | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Coolboy | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hot Brown | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kingfish | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Freudian Fate | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Principal Dancer | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pecan Pattie | 0.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Solitary Gem | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Caralicious | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Chillinwithfriends | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Paynter Fest | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | First Dawn | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Red Mule | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Duress | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Montatham | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Mike | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bebeau | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Azzedine (FR) | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tallestofthetall | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Single Focus | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bridgetothefuture | 50.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Its a Chance | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Meadow Mist | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Take Me to Hardoon | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bank Examiner | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bustin Scones | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mary’s Girl | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She’s So Shea D | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cheatham Hill | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Corey Scores | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Plink Freud | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tarallucci | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Lough Na Mona | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Winifred J | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tossup | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Freddymo Factor | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pendolino | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rousey | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fight On Lucy | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mighty Knight | 50.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mihos | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dynamax Prime | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Supreme Aura | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Performer | 0.60 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bonus Points | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grumps Little Tots | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | No Distortion | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Miss Grillo S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | My Sassy Sarah | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sparkling Sky | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Crystalle | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | English Breeze | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jazzique (IRE) | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Selflessly | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ava K’s Girl | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wicked Title | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Monkeyseemonkeydo | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | What’s to Blame | 1.20 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Loaded Joe | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | English Humor | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Don Ciccio | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Good Solution | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Larceny | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Big Wonder | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Camouflaged Kisser | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sneads | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.