September 28, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Indian Cross | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mister Carson | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tadeo | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | No Ka Oi | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | K W Captain Hook | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ingenico | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Devil’s Drama | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | The Big Bluff | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Magic Mo | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Two Chips | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Allgrit | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Edzo | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Move It | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Davidic Line | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Boatswain | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gaspergou | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Cane Break | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Boston Light | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Florida Flash | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Anywhere Road | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Sarinana | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rocky John | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Do Share | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Transatlantic Kiss | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Seven Nation Army | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Principe Guilherme | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sevier | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Impact Player | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Best of Greeley | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mojo Man | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Don’t Mine Me | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Weekend Fun | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Impeccable Style | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cleopatra’s Charm | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Eye On the Finish | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Delphiki | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Catherineofaragon | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spectacular Temper | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Wellington Wonder | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blonde by Nature | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Battleofwinterfell | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kodikova (IRE) | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Contendress | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Takeitback | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tizsfranderella | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wexx | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Itsarollofthedice | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spun Eazy | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Princess Cora | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Diamonds Are A | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Pintxos | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Not Very Gentle | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Road Game | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Great Sense | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Majestic West | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mt. Mitchell | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Baringer Spring | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Chief Executive | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Reelfoot | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | World Tax War (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ekati’s Verve | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lock Keeper | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Ack Ack S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Jagermeister | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Timeline | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | C Z Rocket | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Air Strike | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Thirstforlife | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Unmatchable | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mr Freeze | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr Darcy | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Olympic Village | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Jefferson Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Faraway Kitten | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Scars Are Cool | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Clint Maroon (GB) | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tracksmith | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mick’s Star | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spectacular Gem | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rijeka (IRE) | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Corruze | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lukas Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Mocito Rojo | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Quip | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pioneer Spirit | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Dollar Bill | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Silver Dust | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blueridge Traveler | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kukulkan (MEX) | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sir Anthony | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tenfold | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hawaakom | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Indian Paint | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Darlin Rosie | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Colorincolonel | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Loran Holiday (ARG) | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Patti Patti Patti | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kimberley Dream | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Katie the Cutie | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gianna’s Gift | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Igottawhiteface | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Lontani | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Grade | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jimmy Joe | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Admiral Brown | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | All Around | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Front Page | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Square the Circle | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Silent Force | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Wings Up | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Singapore Flash | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maya Solomea | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.