September 26, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Limage | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Marriage | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Daring | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rhoda’s Jewell | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Calika Rose | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Princess Prado | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | She’s So Sweet | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hassle | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Anywaythewindblows | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Scotty’s Folly | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Notorious Gal | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sovay | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Control Stake | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hunka Burning Love | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sharp Art | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Futile | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Conqueror | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cautious Giant | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Sazerac | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beemie Award | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1A | 10 | Overanalyzer | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mine Inspector | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 2 | True to Dixie | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jazz Music | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 3 | Sidney’s Ransom | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | K C Against World | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Austin Ray | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rickhouse | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Whispering Speaker | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sugar Cube | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Babaknowsevrything | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Moonlight Train | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Molly’s Game | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Maid for Mischief | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kalispell | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Northern Fern | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Atruevision | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 10 | Served Cold | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Katie the Cutie | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Secretary At War | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Souter (GB) | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cowboy Culture | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Multiplier | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Marzo | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rare Form | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Holiday Stone | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Minecraft Maniac | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Longden (GB) | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Coal Truth | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Afleet Ascent | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Ezmosh | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Parlor | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mineyerownmalone | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Curlins Vow | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Yes I See | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Levanto (ARG) | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Candy Carlos | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Celerity | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | V Tach M. D. | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Kapellmeister | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Mono | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Animus | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Wicked Smart | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Purrfectly Claire | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Irrepressible | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Curlinesque | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dixieland Traffic | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Congrats Answer | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Dulcimer Dame | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbina | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Omnia | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Maga Suite | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Divine Serenity | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tormenta | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Miss Imperfection | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Delta’s Kingdom | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Equal Measure | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Woodfin | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bridaled Temper | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Call to Victory | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Makealitlemischief | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Palace Princess | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Amazima | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Homefieldadvantage | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Big Tina | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Landon | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Lake Barkley | 50.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Esfera | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mucha Mezquina | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Zabava | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Kimberley Dream | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.