September 22, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ulele | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cubs Win | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Peru (GB) | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fizzy Friday (GB) | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Unique Factor | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Don’t Tell Marge | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Drinking Dixie | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | My Sixth Sense | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bump Bailey | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Box of Chocolates | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Peppered | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aquadini | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Father G | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bird | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Heroic Officer | 1.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sunflower Rose | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Seven Seventeen | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sister Alex | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wises Landing | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Over the Blues | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | All American Jewel | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Little Red Frog | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Curate | 1.60 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | D Squared | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Maniacal | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr Ashley | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Big Bella Brown | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Belle Tapisserie | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Racer | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Super Terrific | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wrath | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Yabba Dabba Dude | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Greenspan | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kansas City Zip | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Deal Neal In | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Miracle Hill | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trebulski | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Logan Pass | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Superado | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Reason to Soar | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Italian Charm | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Always a Suspect | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fifth Title | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Driven by History | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Laddie Boy | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | All About Ashley | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Starship Zeus | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | No Funny Biz | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Cheytac | 4.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Lady Jenneviere | 1.60 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jack Beanstalk | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | End Zone | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Went | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Super Mamba | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Animate | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Street Ready | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | No Problemo | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Deanos Cape | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fan Favorite | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Czechmight | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Unsweet Tea | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wedding Belle | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | April Entry | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | She’s So Bossy | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Elevententeetime | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Mrs. Bucket | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | The Mallard Queen | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Broadway Diner | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quiet All Around | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ronan | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lil’ Shopper | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Scotty’s Folly | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Actress On Board | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lady C | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Nikki Beach | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Move | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fun Paddy | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jo Marie | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Summer Blossom | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Romani | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gorgeous in Rags | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tiz Ella | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gold Endeavor | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Something Natural | 1.20 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bahama Channel | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Da Gold Room | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Digital Star | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Templet | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Blanket of Roses | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prefect | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Palace Coup | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Atlas Moon | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Louwit | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.