September 20, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lookin At Blessing | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Drunken Fridays | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Regal Look | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bear Trappe | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Homefortheweekend | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Kinda Kid | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Obtained | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bronze Charm | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Its Cold in Dehere | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wosie | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Karate Hottie | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Moonfield | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mischievious Lass | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Macbu | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Bird Tycoon | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Polished Copper | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Algy | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Our Lizzy Lou | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Arbanne | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dixie Queen | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cold Hearted Wench | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Goingtoagogo | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Emely Heart | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Larry’s Baby | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Folly | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Luna Fortis | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | British Invader (GB) | 3.50 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Absolute Love | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cassidy Ave | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Grats Road | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Caspers Run | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bella Kristina | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Halfway | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Data Star | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tres Prinsesas | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Her Kare | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Veilazig | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | She Wants More | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Ash Blonde | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Forever Shining | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Seemslikeoldtimes | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mesange | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Magna G Force | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mine My Time | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Always | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nice of Me | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Michael T | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sandbagger Al | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | His Giant | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Damiano | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Replete | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Amani’s Kitten | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rustic Rick | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Line Judge | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wile E Peyote | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dak Attack | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fact Finding | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pete’s Play Call | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Guest Suite | 5.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Madison’s Luna | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Gold Street | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Complexifier | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Liam’s Legend | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Dawn’s Early Light | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Court Sky | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Don Bourbon | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bigmancan | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Race Driver | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sky Ride | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lastchanceatglory | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jupestar | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12A | 12 | Midnight Jostar | 10.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Seven and Seven | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Newscaster | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Archie Can’t Sell | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Boss Onthe Horizon | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Morning Social | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tapit Wise | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Eskenforit | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mo Zone | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8A | 6 | Claytnthelionheart | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Seek the Peak | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Verve’s Humor | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Job Security | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Long Gray Line | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Fireball Shot | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Ucanthankmelater | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Miss Bigly | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Latest Version | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Daddymademedoit | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Another Day of Sun | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rodhwaan | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Trish the Dish | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Unchained (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Champagne Diet | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | R C Kiss | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Henley Hill (GB) | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lemon Chill | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.