September 19, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Insane Lifestyle | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Around the Dial | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jimmy At Last | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mighty Ghost | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tuff Attack | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maximus Image | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Unscathed | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ferlin Husky | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Citali | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Croce d’Oro | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Richiesonarampage | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Christmas Cookie | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Smokey Row Mac | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pink for Me | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Good Bye Greg | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pablo Del Monte | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jareth | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cuestion de Tiempo | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nuclear Option | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Devils Halo | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Here Comes Kyle | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dazzling Truths | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Shez Stuck Up | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Go Little Gert Go | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Tiz Susan Ann | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Millie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mary’s a Jem | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Laura Attack | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rubietta Blues | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lipliner | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tipsy Again | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Danza Nightaway | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lykan | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Charliecando | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Ry’s a Flying | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Albert Park | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Linfield | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Schmoozin | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Cleanup Time | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bats Chance | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Huey Attack | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Secret Blarney | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Legendary Hero | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Me too Mo | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tale of La Comete | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Brilliant One | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Laverns Lass | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | White Birch | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Applesolutelyright | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ditten Waddy | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Locash | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ben’s Little Cupid | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky I Guess | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Brilliant Zena | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Elegant Prowess | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Half of Manhattan | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Giacallure | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Gift | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Letthebigshot Roll | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Moonlight Mischief | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | In the Chamber | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | All Call | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shobiz Star | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Candy My Boy | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sea Rover | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Marvelous Sky | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tommytoshort | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Majestic Hero | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Last Spring | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Northern Fire | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Once a Thief | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Fort Ramsey | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Party On Dude | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Purr’s Along | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tio Chuy | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bartbaalu | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.