September 14, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Isadora | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Blues Mary | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Amazing Annie | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Isabelle’s Joy | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dance | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Buywon Getwon | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ginger Snap Dance | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Unite the Masses | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Kahn | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Familiar Dream | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mummy Troll | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lethal Levy | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Party On Dude | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | French Command | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lady Warrior | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Rocket Queen | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lively Spell | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Good Wishes | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Galilee | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Social Icon | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Honey Hearts | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baylor | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | New Rules | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Ozette | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hero of Gold | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Detour | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Be Authentic | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | All Fact | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Me too Mo | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Lucky I Guess | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Shanghai Point | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dumbmark | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bordini | 1.80 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Iker | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Four Left Feet | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Go Vo | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Legendary Larry | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gray Mensch | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Columbia Clipper | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bella Linda | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Poseidon’s Passion | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | I’m That Bird | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Slime Queen | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Strong Mandy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Girl From Berlin | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Touch of Disney | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Little Baltar | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Romeo O Romeo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Bootleggin | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Travel West | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zimmerman | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Papa Caliente | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Landing Gear | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fleetway | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Point Streak | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Meeka | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Looktheotherway | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pure Blarney | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Moon Over Cabo | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Midnight Sway | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Belle Brezing | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Del Mar Babe | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sky Freak | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Templuna | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lethal Leanne | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.