September 13, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Vincitore | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Andreas | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jackfruit | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | What a Hoot | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Donivan My Boy | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | English Ransom | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Cloudcraze | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | El Payaso | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Street Edge | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cast a Stone | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cats Valentine | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Haunted Mesa | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Runningfromthefeds | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Purely Boy | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tiz Samurai | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Senor Blanco | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Go Oshie Go | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Opportunistic | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Candy My Boy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hurricane Highway | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Dabo | 1.60 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Student Body Left | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bulldog of Bergen | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ed’s Rocket | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Golden Dragon | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Fort Marsh | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Can She Scoot | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Heir Ball | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Full Count | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Smokin Hot Momma | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Superstar Diva | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Je Suis Belle | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Hey Hey | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Token Vow | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Prado’s Encore | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Keeneasabean | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Jilly | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kuringai | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hero Alexandra | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Sharperthanme | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Logi | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shes Just Capital | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Orcus | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | True Loyalty | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Allegiance | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 6 | Volgograd | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Delta Levy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Lemon Blitz | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Crow Moon | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Miracle Mountain | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Peppermint Crunch | 3.50 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jimmy D | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Zanforce | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tommytoshort | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Veritas | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mischievous Dancer | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The First Hero | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Saturdays Hangover | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Talking Zip | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Next Monday | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Red Prince | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trumpified | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.