September 12, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Kenai Cool | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Romantic Attack | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fortressa | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ms Meer | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Prancipants | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Victory Rose | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Annie Time Girl | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Making a Marc | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sacramento Q | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Elusive Force | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lee’s Luck | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Alpha Boy | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Offlee Fun | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ghost Position | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Helen Hayes | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Running Vicky | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fringe | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kingsbury Dream | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Uknowiaintlying | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Have the Facts | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chainmail | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | W W Ace’s Up | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mind Trappe | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Word of Truth | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Im the Best I Know | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grey Mask | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ferlin Husky | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Back Page | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | B Salty | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Demand Ransom | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Easter Music | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jeggyjeggy | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Knockyourblockoff | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Club Soda | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Tres Generaciones | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Wellfield | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Steel | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sequins Storm | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon Tan | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Tio Chuy | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Radiant Castle | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Do Not Enter | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Boom Box | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mongol Bull | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 4 | Boston Charley | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Strike Quiet | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bajan Rhythm | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sea of Makebelieve | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Gray Mensch | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Jive Daddy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | M C Squared | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Little Baltar | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Brilliant Richie | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Heisfancy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ioya Again | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Baroque | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Jeff the Lion | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Changi | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Behind Enemy Lines | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Risky Risky Risky | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | You Split Tens | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Two Pair | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1 | Nurse Sadie | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Bonita Bay | 1.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Stopshoppingamy | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mind for Mischief | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 6 | Quality too Spare | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady C | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 3 | Tizaladybug | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Blanca Rose | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lucky I Guess | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.