September 7, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Chinobe | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fast Dreamer | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Tip | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sofia’s Slugger | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beau Oxy | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Poppy’s Boys | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hot Iron | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lucky At Justice | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Furbein | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | War Beauty | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Good Mongolia | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sharing a Laugh | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Don’t Hold Queens | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Peppermint Ice | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | American Biz | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Baylor | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Wildcat Lite | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Charge Card | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tanzanite Cat | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Drama Star | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Homer | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kinsella | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bold Friends | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Colonel Fred | 3.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Monsieur Brown | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Andrew the Giant | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lapis Storm | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mora Valley | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thirsty Cowgirl | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Praying for a Win | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Glen’s My Friend | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Stormy Bray | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Southern Attack | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dance Like Katie | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Locash | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cocoa Peach | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Midnight Grace | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Impeachableoffense | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Thenextbestthing | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Kansas City Zip | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Impressed | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Charlotte Marie | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hero of the Hour | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Star of Kodiak | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Military Hop | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Drayke’s Channel | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Jaxons Point | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Clear N Convincing | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | English Investor | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carmelo | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dragunov | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Prince Arlo | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | New Atlas | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Oprah’s Ranger | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | High On Sugar | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Diamond Dave | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Justenufftuff | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sacred Legacy | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Contraction | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Arlington-washington Lassie S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Whisper Slow | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Richies Great Girl | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Contendress | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Angelcents | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mom’s Red Lipstick | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Spitefulness | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fifthatnarraganset | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | War Colors | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Summer Day | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cowgirl Kimmie | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Arlington-washington Futurity
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Peruvian Boy | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vincent William | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Woopigsooie | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Breckenridge | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Snake Bite | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Lykan | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fast Dreamer | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | January Won | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Flap Jack | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cut to Order | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cadet Captain | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Golden Gift | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Dart | 2.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Funny Questions | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Maligator | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | The Predictor | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Irish Proud | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Suspenders | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rich E Z | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Fort Dixie | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.