September 1, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Go Little Gert Go | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Eye On the Finish | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Good News | 1.40 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Into Humor | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rathrbluckythngood | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Artistic Jewler | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Mimi’s Awesome | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | La Negra Noche | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mysteriously | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cowgirl Kimmie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Judy’s Way | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Titan’s Treasure | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seven Seventeen | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Honey Mug | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sea of Makebelieve | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cloud Study | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Broad Blue Line | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Magician’s Bags | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Colonel Fred | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Magic Moonlight | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Guard Your Grill | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Odachi | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Northern Alliance | 1.60 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Expressly | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wildwood Scat | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Voluptuous | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Have the Facts | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kingsbury Dream | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tam | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Pixelate | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Caramelito | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ry’s a Flying | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Turfmeister | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Its My Bag Baby | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | High Heater | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Topshop | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | I’myourhuckleberry | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | O’Keeffe | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aiken to Be | 15.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Puntsville | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gray Owl | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Thoughtless | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ambassador Luna | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | On Probation | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Fred’stwirlincandy | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sakonnet | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Vincitore | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Americandy | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Juan Pablo | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Copper Fiddle | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Treasure Trove | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Swither’s Shortcut | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Old Fitz | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Slippy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Ain’t Dat Sweet | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ginger Snap Dance | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Templesis | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tomasita | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Country Caden | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ice for That Burn | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Romantic Attack | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Majestic Waters | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Annie Time Girl | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Shes Just Capital | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.