August 30, 2019 Del Mar Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | He’s Like Violence | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Aussie Fox | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nevermissesabeat | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Chosen Vessel | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Sky Logan | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Trojan Spirit | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | War Chest | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bouncing Around | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dawood | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Incredibly Lucky | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rolinga | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Alicia’s Pride | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sassy Kitty | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Laker Jet | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Evening Sonnet | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Absolutely Perfect | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sunrise Royale | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ismelucky | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Maycee Jo | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rose Dunn | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Papaclem’smidnight | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shylock Eddie | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Violette Szabo | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lucky Ms Jones | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Marjorie E | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Ricochet | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Rebel Fire | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dapper | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Summer Fire | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Wilder Than Most | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mysterious Stones | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lightning Fast | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Overkoter | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I Dub Thee | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tribal Impact | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | If Id Told You | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Daring Ways | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Rocks and Salt | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Cali Dude | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Brickyard Ride | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Great Return | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Excellent Sunset (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Don’t Blame Judy | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Foxtail | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ms Peintour | 20.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Achira | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | A Walk in the Park | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Super Patriot | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Animosity | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ficanas (GB) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – I’m Smokin S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bluegrass Faith | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Square Deal | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pas de Panique | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Drippin Sauce | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Phantom Boss | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tap Back | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shady Empire | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Club Aspen | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Riding With Dino | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | El Tigre Terrible | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Big Returns | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Test the Water | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Georgian Road | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Jammers Justice | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hapi Hapi | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nietzsche | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beyond Precher | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Color War | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Code Gray | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Engagement Ring | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Baltimore Beecho | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | King Arthur | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Red Nova | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Heraclitus | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Absolute Weapon | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.