August 17, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 3 | Yankee Empire | 3.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Fort McHenry | 3.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Leading West | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 3A | 1 | Market Impact | 2.50 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Acre | 10.00 | 23.3 | 44-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blackberry Wine | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Anaconda | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | No Word | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | King’s Honor (IRE) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7A | 7 | Digital Software | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Break Curfew | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Imperial | 1.60 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Carrizo | 2.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Figure It Out | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Miss Marcela | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Slimey | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3 | Game Boy Benny | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Rider | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Blacktop Legend | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | All About It | 2.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Revenio | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Storm Tower | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Camouflaged Kisser | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Embellisher | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Oroscopo | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Hurricane Hill | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Giant Boo Boo | 2.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | There He Goes | 3.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blue Gem | 6.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Desert Lights | 4.50 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sams Last Ghasp | 8.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 6 | 6 | All Clear | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Thesis | 12.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Latin Love Bug | 10.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dooley | 8.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Local Hero | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bird’s Eye View | 4.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stella d’Oro | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cape Angel | 3.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nakamura | 6.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Devamani (FR) | 1.80 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Midnight Tea Time | 8.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Westerland (GB) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8A | 8 | Krewe Chief | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Carotari | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Sayyaaf | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | High Crime | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Cohete Rojo | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bourbon in May | 6.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | I Can Do Anything | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Honey Won’t | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lonhtwist | 10.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Yamano Maker (JPN) | 12.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | All Systems Go | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Alongcametheprince | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | First Degree Burn | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dark N Cloudy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Candy Tycoon | 2.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cost Basis | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Feisty Bird | 6.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Irish Mias | 2.50 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 8 | 8 | African Heritage | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
| 3 | 3 | American Butterfly | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Unprecedented | 8.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Excession | 15.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Eagles Palace | 10.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Smart N Fancy S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Morticia | 1.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Oleksandra (AUS) | 3.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Broadway Run | 4.50 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Too Much Tip | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Ruby Notion | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Miss Gossip (IRE) | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fire Key | 4.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady’s Island | 0.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Lezendary | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lake Placid S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Regal Glory | 2.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Feel Glorious (GB) | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blowout (GB) | 2.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Varenka | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Amandrea | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vow to Recover | 10.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wildlife | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Team Win | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Alabama S. Presented By Nyra Bets
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ulele | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dunbar Road | 1.60 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Street Band | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Champagne Anyone | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Apple | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Point of Honor | 2.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Off Topic | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Afleet Destiny | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kelsey’s Cross | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | More Mischief | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Meadow Mist | 3.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Not About the Nail | 8.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Take Me to Hardoon | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mary’s Girl | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Trouble for Skylar | 6.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Moon Heist | 10.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Quietude | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Overtime Olivia | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fancycase | 30.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bustin Scones | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.