August 17, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Broad Blue Line | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bold Friends | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Tims Hope | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Valid Storm | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pleasant Street | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Magician’s Bags | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kielbasa | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Do Not Enter | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Brother Cesare | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Macho Alpha | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Flyingbyu | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Kyzan | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | El Caminante | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Little Baltar | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Vbreeze | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Do Guess Again | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Case Cracker | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pure Blarney | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silly Factor | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Je Suis Belle | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Odachi | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rosie Bear | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Social Icon | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Word of Truth | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Charge Card | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sea of Makebelieve | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Amaroq | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Offlee Fun | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Kinsella | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Oh So Tall | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Andrew the Giant | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Dugout | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Enzoexpress | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jolly Ghaaly | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | V Tach M. D. | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hero Tiger | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ludington | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Michael T | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | American Heritage | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Kool Kate | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Something Kinky | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Room to Finish | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Strollin the Bayou | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Royal Alexandra | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jolee | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ima Little Kitten | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Applique | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fort Marsh | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Point Streak | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Moon Over Cabo | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sullyvin’s G G | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Superstar Diva | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Charlotte Marie | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Del Mar Babe | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Way to Success | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Dusty Miller | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Klassy Karalynn | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mora Valley | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Thirsty Cowgirl | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Majestic Waters | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Praying for a Win | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Locash | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dance Like Katie | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Polly War Cry | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Southern Attack | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Superdyne | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Grace | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.