Sports from the Basement

Del Mar Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, August 15, 2019

August 15, 2019 Del Mar Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Empress of Lov 1.80 3.1 6-1
6 6 Kennedie Sky 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Forbidden Command 12.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Cee Sam’s Girl 5.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Topaz Time 3.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Victory Ice 10.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Love of Art (IRE) 4.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Snazzy Dresser 4.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Tequila Joe 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 4 Erotic 2.50 3 6-1
5 3 Tough It Out 12.00 3 6-1
3 3 Calle Kingpin 2.00 SCRATCH
4 4 He Will 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Secret Courier 2.00 1.8 3-1
6 5 Tidal Effect 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Fast as Cass 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Blame It On Kitty 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 3 Unbroken Star 2.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Starring John Wain 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Road Rager 3.00 2.2 4-1
9 7 Miss Stormy D 4.00 3.2 6-1
8 6 Tinnie 3.50 3.7 7-1
10 8 Mischiffie (IRE) 2.50 4.2 8-1
5 4 Wicked Liar 12.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 Miss Tokyo 3.50 4.4 8-1
2 2 Be a Shero 6.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Surreptitious 12.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Montecatini 0.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Visual Magic 0.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Cellar Door 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Taylor and Burton 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Biddy Duke 2.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Leucothea 2.50 2.6 5-1
8 8 Musically 3.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Small Surprise 4.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Foggy Bottom 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Lady Agatha 20.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Queen Stormborn 20.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Canadian Ginger 20.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Shehastheritestuff 2.50 3.8 7-1
8 7 Algorhythmic 8.00 4 7-1
2 2 Smiling Annie 4.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Sedamar 3.00 4.8 9-1
9 8 Papaya 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Lil Bit Dangerous 12.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Super Bunny 3.50 5.3 10-1
1 1 Battleground State 20.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Aries 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Liberalism 2.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Navy Queen 4.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 I Want One 2.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Sharp Turn 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Sweet Honor 20.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Almost a Factor 12.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Flying Business 10.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Mamas Got Cash 20.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Circleofcolor 12.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Billy’sgotasingle 20.00 6.4 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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