August 11, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Majority Rules | 1.20 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Street Talkin Guy | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Four Ten | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Risp | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fireball Shot | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | One Eyed Jack | 2.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Liberty’s Pursuit | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dontblamerocket | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Dover Cliffs | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6A | 4 | Noble Thought | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Super Dude | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Mo Maverick | 1.60 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Sentry | 6.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Affair | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4A | 4 | Krewe Chief | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Frammento | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Turco Bravo (CHI) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Morning Gold | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Micheline | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Slip Sliding Away | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Apurate | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gran Chemin | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Windfall Profit | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Catherineofaragon | 8.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Leeway | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Revelment | 12.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hard Won | 15.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sharing | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Crack of Dawn | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Miss Marissa | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Jennemily | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Malibu Mischief | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sharpin | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Destiny Over Fate | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Takecharge Mirella | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dovey Lovey | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Queendom | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Big Bennys Tribute | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cheatham Hill | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Evan’s Nice Now | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Mama Mary | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | High Jingo | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | First Appeal | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sadie Lady | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Saratoga Treasure | 4.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stonefactor | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Wantagh Queen | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Merlins Muse | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Amanda Lane | 10.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Palace Avenger | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Mundaye Call | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Secondary Market | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lotta Ott | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Nikki My Angel | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Noudha | 10.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Plea | 8.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Velvet Crush | 10.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cloudbuster | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Harlem Heights | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 11 | Wedontbelieveher | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Cross Border | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Irish Valor | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Southern King | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | El Hermano | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Year of the Kitten | 4.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Not So Quiet Man | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Graded On a Curve | 6.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Opt | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Conforto | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Fotis | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Fleet Admiral | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gosilently | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Honorable Hero | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Steelersfanforlife | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Risky Sour | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Bebe Banker | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cookie Dough | 1.80 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Talk Veuve to Me | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Skamania | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Quick Quick Quick | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | South of France | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Free Kitty | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Galway S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Chelsea Cloisters | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Abyssinian | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Karama | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Eyeinthesky | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sister Peacock | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | O’Keeffe | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Elsa | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Missmizz | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Brooke Marie | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bohemian Bourbon | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tobago | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Peaceful | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Lisbon | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hurricane Jake | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bold Gem | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sandy Lane Kitten | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Highway Flyer | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Shiloh Lane | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Duress | 4.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wild Weekend | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zelenka | 50.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Strategic Outlook | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Secular Stagnation | 3.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12A | 12 | Azzedine (FR) | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13A | 13 | Big Wonder | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cobble Hill | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.