August 11, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Borealis Beauty | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Valiant Lady | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lady Warrior | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Edisto Island | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lu Sea | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pink for Me | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cooper’s Keeper | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tinderella | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Meeka | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lively Spell | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Superstar Bea | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Patsy J | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rake It Up | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Checotah | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Country Assets | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Risky Risky Risky | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Antrim’s Giant | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Travel West | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Trumpi | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nyoman | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | In the Chamber | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Moonlight Mischief | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Discreetness | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Red Corvette | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Clear N Convincing | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Andronikos | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pistol Box | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Prince Arlo | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yourdecisionotmine | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sacred Legacy | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | New Atlas | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Angelino | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Al Taweel | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Industrialist | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Echoes of Laughter | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Knockyourblockoff | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jeggyjeggy | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jimmy At Last | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stormin El Prado | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ready’s Mission | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Konza Kandy | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Gray Owl | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Savvy Ally | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Thunderous Gem | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bold Esther | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Miss Ximena | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super Wonder Girl | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mucha Mezquina | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Rhythmia | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Making a Marc | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Fort Ridge | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Delta Levy | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | P H Factor | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Im the Best I Know | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Honest to Goodness | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | High On Sugar | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Talking Zip | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Rocket Ride | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cloudcraze | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Idaho Tornado | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Donner Pass | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sertoman | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Jordan Game Six | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Musket Hunter | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Smoke Break | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rare Hue | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | He’s Thunder | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.