August 9, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Trappe Valley | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Simsbury | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Storminside | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ed’s Rocket | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Go Oshie Go | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Creme de Cerise | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mighty Ghost | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Richies Great Girl | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hook Her Up | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | I’m That Bird | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Columbia Clipper | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Go Little Gert Go | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tipsy Again | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Laura Attack | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Antalya | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sun Dress | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Peace Love Bread | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rachelgotstephen | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Maid for Mischief | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Luna Fortis | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Americanperfection | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hero of Gold | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Isabelle’s Joy | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mora Valley | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Foo Foo Girl | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stormy Bray | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Night Flower | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Glen’s My Friend | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ozette | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Last Spring | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Crankshaft | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Homer | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | No Boundaries | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cee R Bee | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Patch’s Lugh | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | High Hero | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Enlisting | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Back Page Star | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Room to Finish | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lethal Leanne | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tasseography | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | April Fifteenth | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stamp | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chlobee | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Unite the Masses | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Foggy Albion | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Old Fitz | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | V Man | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kaliningrad | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Menlo Park | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Canary Islands | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fuelish Behavior | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Maligator | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nobody Move | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Joey B | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Revolt | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Smokey Row Mac | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rich E Z | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Regal Kitten | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Landing Gear | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.