August 8, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cuddle Kitten | 1.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Served Cold | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stay Fond | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Colorincolonel | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zena Rules | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Madame Barbarian | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | My Roxy Girl | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shimmering Moon | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Moondance Joy | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Reata’s Reward | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tayler’s the Boss | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bertranda | 4.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Royal Inheritance | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 8 | Mo Gee | 1.60 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Rhode Island | 1.60 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Jerome Avenue | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Sargeant Drive | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | My Amanjena | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Tiz Morning | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bad Boy | 2.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | No Worries Mate | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Stage Left | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Bumperdoo | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Take Your Place | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 3 | Conqueror | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Driven to Compete | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Potomac | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | I’m an Ocala Dude | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shut the Box | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 5 | California Night | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Perpetrate | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tiz the Law | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dangerous Edge | 2.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Brilliant Brooks | 3.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Disco Deano | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Geta Lode of Lucky | 8.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dream Bigger | 4.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Forever Wicked | 20.00 | 16.1 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bye Bye Nicky | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Brittas Bay | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tan and Tight | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Prosperity | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sara Sea | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Restructure | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blahnik | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Erin More | 5.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Renninas Rose | 30.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Steam Engine | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ready to Escape | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smokin Platinum | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Morning Breez | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cerretalto | 4.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | H Man | 2.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Binkster | 3.50 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jewel Can Disco | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Special Story | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Saratoga Dew S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fetching | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Out of Orbit | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Move | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cartwheel | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Turn and Bern | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Held Accountable | 2.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Walkoff | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mango M | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Financial System | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hierarchy | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Belgrano | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | The J Y | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | King Cause | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Growth Engine | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Performer | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | Allured | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Tricky Magician | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Go Poke the Bear | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Rock the Causeway | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Thomond Park | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Artemus Bridge | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Dakota’s Dude | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Coral Legacy | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Spinning Kitten | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Graze of Glory | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Bet | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Baffin Bay | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.