July 31, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Keota | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tass | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Pure Praise | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Team Win | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Kingdom’s Queen | 2.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Star Swept | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Middle Out | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Joy of Treasure | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Seaside Dancer | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | She’s Not Bluffing | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zandora | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Movie Score | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Peggy Sue | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Incredible Miss | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dazzling Speed | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Bennys Tribute | 5.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shak’s Hidden Gem | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Magnetique | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Aubrey Tate | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Playtone | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Risky Mischief | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sister Beauty | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Courageous Girl | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Smokin Hot Kiss | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mrs. Phelps | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | E Z for You to Say | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Barker Lane | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Saratoga Beauty | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bangle Gal | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kid Is Frosty | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Subsidiary | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Niko’s Dream | 1.60 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rossellini | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sterling Beauty | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dancing Slippers | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Newly Minted | 0.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Girlntheyellowtaxi | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Talk You Out of It | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Morality Clause | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Astarte Gold | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kit Kat Katie | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Darken a Day | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Little Farina | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Wicked Title | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blessingsofliberty | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Central Capital | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Positive Power | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Wicked Amber | 30.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Las Ramblas | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Noble Enterprise | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | La Negrita | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Princess Cadey | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Figure of Speech | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tulanian | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Slam Dunk | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hallajoori | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cairo Express | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | One Time Around | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gloriously | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Thissmytime | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 8 | Magic Motion | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Drop a Hint | 10.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mochaccino | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Power of Magic | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Altea (FR) | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | English Soul | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kreesie | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Silver Shaker | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stay Fond | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Mascha (FR) | 1.20 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Goodbye Brockley | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Belle of the Spa | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Something Joyful | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ailish | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Cathy Naz | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Jaded Lady | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Trouble for Skylar | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 12 | She’s Dreamin | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Hollywood Cat | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Short Pour | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Citizen Matzo | 4.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Theaterintheround | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Questeq | 12.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tzipi | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Birthday Gift | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dancingwthdaffodls | 20.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Aquariva | 12.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Cirque | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Shine Again S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Saguaro Row | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Special Relativity | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mr. Al’s Gal | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Awestruck | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Talk Veuve to Me | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Quick Quick Quick | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Morelikelythannot | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sister Gema | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | To a Friend | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Lido Key | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Cairo Queen | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Andi’s Kitten | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Going to Temple | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Elite Mom | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Downstream | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Lady Trish’s Dream (GB) | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Simply Miss Red | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Margie Music | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Into Glamour | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.