July 28, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Macho Boy | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fifty Cents | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Stanhope | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Brian’s Last Song | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sir Ludlow | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cleon Jones | 2.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Three Jokers | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Air On Fire | 1.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Laser Loop | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Take It to Scale | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stink Man | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | All Clear | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Desert Lights | 5.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dooley | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Proximate to Power | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Local Edition | 15.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Remstin | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fooch | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Our Stormin Norman | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Our Last Buck | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Macca Tree | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lundqvist | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Yes and Yes | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tenure | 2.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kazmania | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Runningwscissors | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kerry Boy | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bustin Hoffman | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Daddy Knows | 2.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ventus | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bebe Banker | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Mo Gee | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sport | 1.80 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Danny California | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Clyde’s Runner | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Quality Choice | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Proquestor | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Sinner Is You | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Burn the Boats | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | River Knight | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Raphael | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Zulu | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Super Dude | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cowboy Rhythm | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Candy Promises | 2.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Turco Bravo (CHI) | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Starship Zeus | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | American Lincoln | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Aymara | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Confessing | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Global Exchange | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Paint It Green | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Shurakaa | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Queen Medb (IRE) | 2.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Elle M’a Souri (FR) | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | New and Improved | 4.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Magical Time | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pat Pat Pat | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Prosperity | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Amos | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Blame It On Mom | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gilda Marie | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Macho | 3.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Queenofeverything | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fight On Lucy | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pendolino | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Irish Banker | 12.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nasty Affair | 8.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Maniacal | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Macho Blue | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pagliacci | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | So Conflated | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Fixed Point | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Discretionary Marq | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | End Play | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gemonteer | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Corot | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Missle Bomb | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Repatriated Gem (GB) | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cap de Creus | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bridaled Temper | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Giant Zinger | 3.50 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dyna Passer | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Night of England (GB) | 2.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | So Charming | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Romantic Pursuit | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Purely Lucky | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Amsterdam S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Shancelot | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Honest Mischief | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Super Comet | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Strike Silver | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nitrous | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wendell Fong | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Lemniscate | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Classy John | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Garter and Tie | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Achilles Warrior | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon Calling | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
| 1 | 1 | The Big S | 30.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Abby Normal | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fusi | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Traci’s Girl | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Taniell’s Candy | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Deja Raconte | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Freudycatfever | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Here Comes Meg | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heartstrings | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Youth Gone Wild | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | E Z Lorelle | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Finlee | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Vinda Machine | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.