July 27, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Teachable Moment | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | I’m Looking Up | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | South West Bay (GB) | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wild Weekend | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Blacktop Legend | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mo Fun | 8.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | I’d Like to Know | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Azzedine (FR) | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Knockout Punch | 10.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Hurricane Hill | 12.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | El Fenomeno | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Binary | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | High Rider | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Revenio | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hurricane Jake | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Swick | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Quasar | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Doll Collection | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bossy Bride | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rapido Gatta | 2.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lexintonia | 3.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Daleelaty | 6.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trans Mississippi | 12.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Shekky Shebaz | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Royal Asset | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sir Ballantine | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Soul P Say | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Frisky Magician | 3.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Scout’s Honor | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spectrolite | 5.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Canarsie Kid | 10.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mission Command | 8.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Psychic Energy | 4.50 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Orpheus (ARG) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 11 | Blue Belt | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bolita Boyz | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Aristocratic | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Kowalski | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Complexifier | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Soviet | 1.60 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sonneman | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Leading West | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Shoplifted | 1.60 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Always Misbehaving | 8.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | No Bad Days | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Acre | 5.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Little Harbour | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Keep Quiet (FR) | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Frontier Market | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Dream Friend | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Emaraaty (GB) | 2.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Combatant | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Prioritize | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Westerland (GB) | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | C C Rider | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Control Group | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Turco Bravo (CHI) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Collegeville Girl | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Ella’s Song | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | More Mischief | 4.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cash Offer | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sweet Meadow Mist | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flashpackinbarbie | 3.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | New Girl in Town | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Makin’ Out | 6.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mary’s Girl | 15.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shesasuperfreak | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Quietude | 30.00 | 13 | 24-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tequila Sunday | 30.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Moon Heist | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Are You Kitten Me | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Proven Strategies | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Crossing the Moon | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bye Bye Melvin | 5.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hard Sting | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Eagerly | 3.50 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blanket of Roses | 6.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fame to Famous | 20.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mo and Go | 12.00 | 14.1 | 27-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Sul Moon | 8.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Economic Policy | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12A | 12 | Ghost of the Mambo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Fortune’s Fool | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Overdeliver | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Chateau | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Puttheglassdown | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Frosted Grace | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Morning Breez | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Runforthemunnings | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ventus | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dark N Cloudy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Imperial Hint | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mitole | 1.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Do Share | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Diamond Oops | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Strike Power | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Firenze Fire | 4.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Crow | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Bowling Green S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Arklow | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Channel Maker | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Zulu Alpha | 10.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sadler’s Joy | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Olympico (FR) | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Red Knight | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Focus Group | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Channel Cat | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Argonne | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Highland Sky | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ya Primo (CHI) | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Catcho En Die (ARG) | 50.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bigger Picture | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Jim Dandy S. Presented By Nyra Bets
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tacitus | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Global Campaign | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | War of Will | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mihos | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Laughing Fox | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tax | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 10 | Letterman | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Macho | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Givetheman a Cigar | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Surge Pricing | 2.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Saratoga Colonel | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Coach Villa | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scrutinize | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fotis | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Time Expired | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Won’t Be Missed | 50.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hijacker | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | No Mo Promises | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | River Knight | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Danny California | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Clyde’s Runner | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Raphael | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.