July 27, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pretty Greeley | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pocket of Candy | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Neuqua | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Point Streak | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sugarsugarsugar | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lethal Leanne | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Zaphical | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lu Sea | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Valiant Lady | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Betruetoyourschool | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Odachi | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | First Hoosier | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Baba Tobi | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Amaroq | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bold Friends | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Run Your Race | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Charge Card | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Greeleys Ice | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Country Cool | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ready to Fight | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bizzee Channel | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | P H Factor | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hero Tiger | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jais’s Solitude | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Landofthepharaohs | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | V Tach M. D. | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rustic Rick | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Springfield S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Colonel Klink | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Tak | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Another Mystery | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dabo | 1.80 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | D’fever | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | D’ Yank | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Wile E Peyote | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mister Maestro | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nuclear Option | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Driven by History | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tough Stuff | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gorgeous George | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Student Body Left | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bulldog of Bergen | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | President Elect | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Giacallure | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Frost Or Frippery | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Half of Manhattan | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Purely Boy | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Golden Gift | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr D’s Way | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miracle Mountain | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jimmy D | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fort Dixie | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Big Dinner | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Sharon N. Kirby Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | W W Fitzy | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sister Ruler | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Patsy J | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Stopshoppingamy | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stormy Empire | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ronan | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Snake N Shake | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ditten Waddy | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Night Flower | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sweet Harbor Gold | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Her Name Is Um | 1.60 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hero of Gold | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Express | 1.80 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Praying for a Win | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | R Marie | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Locash | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Queens Day Victory | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dance Like Katie | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eliz’s Hope | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.