July 25, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – A. P. Smithwick Memorial Steeplechase S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Gibralfaro (IRE) | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sempre Medici (FR) | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Modem (GB) | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bedrock (GB) | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Vosne Romanee (GB) | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Peppay Le Pugh (IRE) | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Winston C (IRE) | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hinterland (FR) | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Belisarius (IRE) | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | No Wunder (GB) | 15.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | All the Way Jose | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Show Court (IRE) | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Portrade (IRE) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Stunning Munnings | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wedontbelieveher | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Speed Talks | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mrs. Awesome | 5.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Polished Copper | 3.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Persian Queen | 4.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wicked Amber | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ratajkowski | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Paved With Gold | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Move | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Not About the Nail | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beyond Discreet | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cotton Candy Cutie | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Carlisle Belle | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Third Edition | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bail Out | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tide of the Sea | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shennan (IRE) | 3.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Anticipating | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Noble Spirit | 6.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Better Tapit | 5.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hawaiian Noises | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pyron | 1.60 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | I’m Busy | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Replete | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Johny’s Bobby | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Family Biz | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dark Money | 2.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Desert Spring | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Keota | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tass | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pure Praise | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Team Win | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Questeq | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seaside Dancer | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Righteous Ruby | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Star Swept | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Middle Out | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Anne Dupree | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Tizaprincessa | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Joy of Treasure | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Playtone | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Magnetique | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Imincomunicado | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Aubrey Tate | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Courageous Girl | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Risky Mischief | 2.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | E Z for You to Say | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Big Bounty | 15.00 | 11.4 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Central Capital | 10.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Barker Lane | 20.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Beyond Brown | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mrs. Phelps | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Clairvoyance | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | English Soul | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Silver Shaker | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kreesie | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Goodbye Brockley | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maid To Remember (GB) | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Nonsensical | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Mascha (FR) | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Belle of the Spa | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Tip At Tapit | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | South of the Shore | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – John Morrissey S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gold for the King | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Build to Suit | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Saratoga Giro | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Celtic Chaos | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | T Loves a Fight | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eye Luv Lulu | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Minsky Moment | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Macagone | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | We Should Talk | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Shamrock Kid | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Evaluator | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Storm Prophet | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ides of Arch | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Way Early | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Appealing Briefs | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Leaveematthegate | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Mo Diddley | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | The Caretaker | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Memories Eternal | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Two Graces | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Eighty Seven North | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pecatonica | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Joule | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Violetas Visions | 50.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Molly’s Nighthawk | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Recess | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Wicked Waters | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Fika | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Frosty Linz | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Big Expense | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ideational | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Low Is Laine | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Love That Goose | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Youth Gone Wild | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.