July 21, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Markhan | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Repeat Repeat | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gaye Breeze (IRE) | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cite | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Whitman’s Poetry | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Roller Rolls On | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zeppelin Ride | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Renown (GB) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Brush Country | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mandatory Payout | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blue Gem | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Heyitsnricopalazo | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Somebody | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Threatlovesmidnite | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Business Cycle | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mission Statement | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Skywriting | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bad Boy | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dillon Rocks | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Heirloom Kitten | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Foti | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Crypto Gold | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | On a Spree | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Borough Boy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Value Engineering | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Coaching Club American Oaks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Guarana | 0.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Boxwood | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Champagne Anyone | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Point of Honor | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Off Topic | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Per Capita | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Majority Rules | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spice Road | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Scars Are Cool | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ranger Up | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tough Times | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fireball Shot | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mamma Dee | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chestnut Street | 2.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Galadriel’s Light | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Art Buff | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ragtime Suzy | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Kinky Sox | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Solitary Gem | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Take Charge Tina | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kickin Kimberly | 5.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Trixie’s Time | 10.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Roses From Ben | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Infatuation | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dynamic Miss | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Appreciate | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Stormy D | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Incredible Miss | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Fly So Pretty | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sequin | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mom’s Pass | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Meritaten | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sharing | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Queen of Shades | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Crack of Dawn | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss My Macho | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ill Will | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Giggle Factory | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sparkling Sky | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Voting Agreement | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Star Command | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Divided Sky (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Magic Motion | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Persian Queen | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mr Thrifty | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Basin | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Yankee Empire | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Three Technique | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lucky Curlin | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | American Butterfly | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Excession | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | He’s Super Lucky | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Eagles Palace | 10.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Federale | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Social Afleet | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Variant Perception | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Halladay | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Penalty | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lonhtwist | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Hoboe | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Morrison | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Saintly Samurai | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rapt | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | King Cause | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bernin’ Thru Gold | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Uncle Sigh | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Majestic Affair | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Long Haul Bay | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Restoring Hope | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Identity Politics | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Borracho | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | No Distortion | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Own Agenda | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Giuseppe the Great | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Be Gone Daddy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Caress S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Morticia | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Significant Form | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Factorofwon | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Broadway Run | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fire Key | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mominou | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Gossip (IRE) | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jc’s Shooting Star | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mrs. Ramona G. | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Internet of Things | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Pipes | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nutzforboltz | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 10 | Masterkey | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Not So Quiet Man | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Riendo | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | He’smyluckyfellow | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Monaghan | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Steelersfanforlife | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Risky Sour | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fleet Admiral | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bad Guy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Hokulea | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Daddy Knows | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 13 (Stakes) – Shuvee S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Wow Cat (CHI) | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s a Julie | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pink Sands | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Golden Award | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Forever Liesl | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Skeptic | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Coach Rocks | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Electric Forest | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.