July 21, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Elusive Force | 1.20 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fern | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Patch’s Lugh | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Saturdays Hangover | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | High Hero | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trumpified | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Barnyard Fiddler | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sunny’s Rainbow | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flyingbyu | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pamir | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kinsella | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Romeo O Romeo | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Kim Dandy | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Meeka | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Looktheotherway | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Checotah | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Belle Brezing | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aviating | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fair Maiden | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pixelate | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lykan | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Twin Turbo | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Go Little Gert Go | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beau Oxy | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fame Is Rough | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Four Left Feet | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mongol Bull | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Jive Daddy | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | He Is Rhuthless | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Boom Box | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | He’s Dann Good | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Greenhorn | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Franklin County | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Senor Blanco | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Love Your Buttons | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ghost Position | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Two Pair | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Dragunov | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hart Hills Road | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 7 | Rio Seco | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | High On Sugar | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Campioni | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zanforce | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Fort Dixie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Cloche | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Carissa Crismas | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Meghan | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Gentle Touch | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Detour | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Field Daisey | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Quality too Spare | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Bird Key | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | I Love to Race | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Clear N Convincing | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Trumpi | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Moonlight Mischief | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Betwithbothhands | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Never Even Called | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Lemon Blitz | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Surf Shack | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | He’s Cheeky | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Sea Rover | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.